人口集聚与经济集聚匹配对劳动生产率影响研究

Research on the Influence of the Matching of Population Agglomeration and Economic Agglomeration on Labor Productivity

我国人口面临进入慢增长和即将来临的负增长,老龄化还将进一步加深,提高劳动生产率成为应对劳动力减少及老龄化带来影响的重要途径。而除了提高劳动力的人力资本水平和产业发展中技术水平外,宏观因素中哪些因素能够促进劳动生产率的提高呢?在未来人口负增长的情势下,人口的区域性集聚是一个必然趋势,那么人口集聚是否能够促进劳动生产率的提高,提高的前提是什么?为此,本文利用中国具有代表性的75个城市2008-2017年短面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型估计检验区域城市经济集聚和人口集聚不同匹配对劳动生产率的影响程度和方向。研究结果表明:人口集聚总是滞后于经济集聚,当人口集聚与经济集聚次序错位,经济集聚优先时能够促进劳动生产率的提升。不同发展阶段呈现不同的人口集聚与经济集聚的匹配状态,而劳动生产率高低有别。人口空间集聚高于或持平于经济空间集聚的匹配使得劳动生产率较低;经济空间集聚优先于人口空间集聚,人口集聚跟进追赶,则促进劳动生产率提升;若经济空间集聚处于稳定状态而人口空间集聚离心力强化时,劳动生产率将处于徘徊状态;当高经济空间集聚与高人力资本集聚和低人口空间集聚相匹配时,劳动生产率高位运行,是经济发展的一个优化理想状态。

With the slow growth of China’s population and the deepening of the upcoming negative growth and aging,improving labor productivity is an important way to deal with the impact of labor force reduction and aging.Besides raising the human capital level of labor force and the technical level in industrial de⁃velopment,which macro factors can promote the improvement of labor productivity?Under the negative population growth in the future,regional population agglomeration is an inevitable choice and trend,so whether population agglomeration can promote the improvement of labor productivity,and what are the prerequisites for the improvement?Therefore,based on the representative short panel data of 75 cities in China from 2008 to 2017,the spatial Durbin model is used to estimate and test the influence degree and direction of different matching of regional urban economic agglomeration and population agglomeration on labor productivity.The results show that population agglomeration always lags behind economic agglomera⁃tion,when the order of population agglomeration and economic agglomeration is out of order,and economic agglomeration is given priority,it can promote the improvement of labor productivity.Different stages of development show different matching states of population agglomeration and economic agglomeration,while the level of labor productivity is different:the matching of population spatial agglomeration is higher than or equal to economic spatial agglomeration leads to lower labor productivity;economic spatial agglomeration takes precedence over population spatial agglomeration,and population agglomeration to follow up will promote labor productivity.If the economic spatial agglomeration is in a stable state and the population spatial agglomeration centrifugal force is strengthened,the labor productivity will be in a wandering state;when the high economic spatial agglomeration matches the high human capital agglomeration and the low population spatial agglomeration,the high labor productivity runs,which is an optimal ideal state for economic development.