中国居民自评一般健康的队列差异研究——兼论“人口红利”的健康效应

The Cohort Differences of Chinese Residents’Self-rated General Health:Also on the Health Effects of“Demographic Dividend”

本文利用2008-2015年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,通过拟合多层APC模型分离出居民自评一般健康在年龄、时期和队列上的效应,其中特别关注队列之间的健康差异并进一步探讨队列效应的发生机制。研究结果表明:第一,总体上我国居民自评一般健康存在显著的年龄、时期和队列效应差异;在控制了个体、时期层次上的一系列解释变量之后,队列效应仍然显著。第二,就队列差异而言,自评一般健康的峰值出现在1962-1970的“婴儿潮”队列,主要得益于该队列教育经历的平稳以及后续就业机会的多样;而低谷则出现在1947-1949队列,很可能与其所经历的营养匮乏以及较长期的教育中断有关。第三,队列效应存在显著的城乡差别,城市居民自评一般健康队列效应的波动比农村居民要大得多。分析表明长期营养匮乏对于农村居民所产生的负面健康影响尚未引起足够的重视。第四,在进一步的机制分析中,队列规模的正向效应表明我国人口结构转变过程中的“人口红利”很可能也为自评一般健康最佳的1962-1970年“婴儿潮”队列带来了额外的“健康红利”。在他们广泛进入劳动力市场后的20多年间,我国正处于“人口红利”扩张期,社会抚养负担小,经济增长极为迅速,加之适时的计划生育政策,十分有助于其职业生涯的拓展与经济条件的改善。这一代人不仅是“人口红利”的创造者,更是受益者。

Based on the data of the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)from 2008 to 2015,this study isolates the effects of residents’self-rated general health on age,period,and cohort by fitting a hierarchical APC model and further explores the mechanism of cohort effect,paying particular attention to the cohort dif⁃ferences.The results show that first,there are significant age,period,and cohort effect differences in the self-rated general health of Chinese residents.The cohort effect remains significant even after controlling for a series of explanatory variables both at the individual and the period level.Second,in terms of cohort differences,the peak of self-rated health occurs in the 1962-1970“baby boom”cohort,which mostly bene⁃fits from the stabilization of their education experience and the diversity of employment opportunities when they got into the labor market.And the trough appeared in the 1947-1949 cohort,which is likely to be relat⁃ed to the undernutrition and long-time education disruption that they experienced.Third,there are signifi⁃cant differences between urban and rural areas regarding the cohort effect,and the fluctuation of cohort ef⁃fect among urban residents is much larger than that of rural residents.The analysis shows that the negative health effects of chronic nutritional deficiencies among rural residents have not yet received enough atten⁃tion.Finally,the positive effect of cohort size suggests that the“demographic dividend”ushered in during China’s demographic transition may also have brought additional“health dividends”to the“baby boom⁃ers”(1962 to 1970)who present the best self-rated health.For more than 20 years after their entry into the labor market,China has been going through the period of“demographic dividend”expansion,with light so⁃cial support burden and extremely rapid economic growth.Coupled with the timely family planning policy,all these social factors are very conducive to their career expansion,economic conditions improvement and health promotion.This generation is not only the creator of the“demographic dividend”,but also the benefi⁃ciary.