经济增长目标与城市全要素生产率

Economic Growth Target and Urban Total Factor Productivity

通过手工检索2005—2016年我国265个城市的经济增长目标,实证检验了经济增长目标对城市全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,经济增长目标显著抑制了城市全要素生产率,并且与中西部地区城市相比,经济增长目标对东部地区城市全要素生产率抑制作用更强;在全要素生产率越高的城市,经济增长目标对城市全要素生产率的抑制作用越强。分阶段研究发现,经济增长目标对城市全要素生产率的抑制作用主要出现在党的十八大之前;党的十八大以来,经济增长目标对全要素生产率的负面影响不再显著。作用机制分析表明,经济增长目标会通过增加扩张性投资、减少政府科教支出,进而抑制城市全要素生产率提升。此外,创业活动会弱化经济增长目标对城市全要素生产率的抑制作用,在创业活跃度越高的城市,经济增长目标对全要素生产率的负面影响越弱。研究结论表明,虽然过高的经济增长目标对全要素生产率产生了负面影响,但两者并非完全对立的关系,党的十八大以来我国将创新作为经济发展的核心驱动力,在这一背景下经济增长目标对全要素生产率的抑制作用不再显著。

By manually searching the economic growth targets of 265 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2016,this paper empirically tests the impact of economic growth targets on urban total factor productivity.The results show that the economic growth target significantly inhibits the urban total factor productivity,and compared with the cities in the central and western regions,the economic growth target inhibits the urban total factor productivity more strongly in the eastern region.In cities with higher total factor productivity,the inhibition effect of economic growth target on total factor productivity is stronger.It is found that the inhibiting effect of economic growth target on urban total factor productivity mainly appears before the 18th CPC National Congress.Since the 18th CPC National Congress,the negative impact of economic growth target on total factor productivity is no longer significant.The analysis of the action mechanism shows that the economic growth target will restrain the improvement of urban total factor productivity by increasing the expansionary investment,reducing the government expenditure on science and education.In addition,entrepreneurial activities will weaken the inhibitory effect of economic growth target on total factor productivity.In cities with higher entrepreneurial activity,the negative effect of economic growth target on total factor productivity will be weaker.In this paper,the research results indicate that,although the high economic growth target has negative effect on the total factor productivity,the relationship between the two are not opposite,since the eighteenth congress to innovation as the core driving force of economic development in our country,under the background of the economic growth target inhibition of total factor productivity is no longer significant.