湖南省县域经济差异及影响因素探测分析

Analyses of the County Economic Difference in Hunan Province and Its Influencing Factors

采用空间自相关分析、地理探测器等研究方法,利用湖南省各县(市、区)近15 a的三次产业人均产值和相关影响因素数据,分析了县域间经济的整体差异、不同产业人均产值的集聚程度,并找出影响产业经济差异的主要因素。结果表明:2003—2017年间三次产业人均产值县域间差异表现为第二产业最大,第三产业次之,第一产业最小,变异系数均值分别为1.04、0.97和0.37,且各产业人均产值县域间差异有缩小的趋势;县域产业经济发展水平空间自相关性具有显著特征,显著性表现为第二产业最强,第一产业次之,第三产业最弱,全局Morans’I均值分别为0.47、0.33和0.23;第二产业人均产值县域空间集聚呈增强的趋势,全局Morans’I由0.41增加到0.54,而第一三产业人均产值县域集聚程度有一定减弱,全局Morans’I分别由0.31、0.33减少到0.28、0.25;地理探测结果显示,影响县域间第一产业发展差异的主导因素由政府干预变为城镇化水平,影响第二产业发展差异的主导因素是产业支撑,影响第三产业发展差异的主导因素是市场规模。

In this essay,the overall differences,agglomeration degree of per capita output value of different industries of county economy,and the main factors that affect the industrial economy differences were analyzed by the methods of spatial autocorrelation,geographical detector,etc.based on the data of per capita output value of Hunan three industries and relevant influencing factors in recent 15 years.The results indicated that during 2003-2017,the largest overall difference of per capita output value between counties was the secondary industry,next the tertiary industry and finally the primary industry.The mean coefficient of variation of the secondary,tertiary and primary industries was 1.04,0.97 and 0.37,respectively.The inter-county disparity of per capita output value of each industry tended to decrease.The spatial autocorrelation of county industrial economic development level had significant characteristics,i.e.,the secondary industry was the strongest,followed by the primary industry,while the tertiary industry was the weakest;the global Moran's index averages of the secondary,primary and tertiary industries were 0.47,0.33 and 0.23,respectively.The county spatial agglomeration of per capita output value of the secondary industry presented an increasing trend,and the global Moran's index increased from 0.41 to 0.54;while the county spatial agglomeration of per capita output value of the primary and tertiary industries were weakened to a certain extent,and the global Moran's index decreased from 0.31 and 0.33 to 0.28 and 0.25,respectively.The result of geographical exploration showed that the leading factor influencing the development difference of the primary industry among counties was the urbanization level instead of the government intervention,influencing the secondary industry was the industrial support,and influencing the tertiary industry was the market scale.