不安全行为管理对策仿真优化研究

Research on simulation and optimization of management countermeasures for unsafe behavior

为优化海防工程承建企业在不同人员水平、组织模式条件下的安全管理策略,提高海防工程安全水平,提出了以建筑工人不安全行为决策为核心的工程企业安全管理仿真模型。该模型分为建筑工人不安全行为决策模型和工程企业安全管理模型两个层次。其中:建筑工人不安全行为决策模型假设工人是有限理性的,并应用前景理论以成本收益分析计算单次行为决策期望值,以上一次行为决策和周围同事决策为参照点来计算连续多次行为决策的累计前景值;工程企业安全管理模型主要模拟因素包括不同组织模式下的工人相互提醒概率、管理者人数以及安全教育培训强度。运用AnyLogic进行的仿真分析结果表明:应用该模型能够获得优化的安全管理策略。

In order to optimize the safety management strategies of construction company undertaking the coastal defense projects under the conditions of different personnel levels and organizational mo-dels,and to improve the safety level of coastal defense projects,a simulation model of engineering enterprise safety management was proposed with the decision of unsafe behavior of construction workers as the core.The model was composed of two aspects:construction worker unsafe behavior decision model and engineering enterprise safety management model.With the assumption that workers were bounded rational,the expected value of a single behavior decision based on cost-benefit analysis was calculated applying the Prospect Theory;and the previous behavior decision and the decisions of colleagues around were used as reference to calculate the cumulative prospect value of multiple consecutive behavior decisions.The main simulation factors of the model include the probability of reminding each other among personnel under different organizational models,the number of managers and the intensity of safety education and training.Simulation analysis using AnyLogic shows that an optimized security management strategy can be obtained by applying the model.