多维电力市场风险综合评价研究

Research on comprehensive evaluation of multi dimensional power market’s risks

随着我国电力市场化改革的不断深入,市场交易类别与主体行为的不断丰富在完善市场体制建设的同时也为市场运行带来了一定风险,需要一套全面、客观的电力市场风险评估体系对现阶段电力市场存在或潜在的风险隐患进行量化体现。通过对市场结构、市场主体、市场效率及市场运行机制等4个方面进行风险因素的挖掘分析,提炼出相应指标,采用结合改进的层次分析法与熵权法的组合赋权方法,对所提的各项指标进行权重计算,并结合实例对电力市场风险进行了多维评价,验证了所提指标体系的适用性和有效性。

China’s power market reform has brought certain risks to the market operation.A comprehensive and objective risk assessment system is needed to quantify the existing risks and po⁃tential risks of the current power market operation.By mining and analyzing the risk factors from four aspects,such as market struc⁃ture,market subject,market efficiency and market operntion mech⁃anism,the corresponding indicators are extracted.The weighting of each index is calculated by combining the improved analytic hier⁃archy process and the entropy weight method.The multi⁃dimen⁃sional evaluation of power market risk is carried out with an exam⁃ple to verify the proposed the applicability and validity of the evalu⁃ation model.