房价、人口规模与长三角地区城市创新能力研究

On the Housing Price,Population Size and Urban Innovation Capacity in Yangtze River Delta Region

房价作为影响创新成本和地方品质的重要因素,其与长三角城市创新的关系亟待深入研究。基于长三角地区41个地级市2009—2018年的面板数据,首先刻画了长三角地区城市房价与创新能力的时空演化格局,其次运用双向固定模型、门槛回归计量模型和工具变量法检验了城市房价对创新的影响,并进一步分析了城市人口规模变量对其的调节作用。结果表明:(1)2009—2018年,长三角地区房价呈波动上升,近年来增幅有所扩大;在空间上,房价和创新能力具有相似的格局且存在“高房价—高创新”的“双高”现象。(2)在考虑城市控制变量的情况下,城市人口规模对高房价与地区创新有着积极正向的调节作用,高房价对规模较大的城市存在创新升级的促进作用,而对规模较小的城市则有挤出效应,其结果通过内生性检验。(3)人口规模对地区创新存在双门槛效应。当城市人口规模小于第一个门槛值(411.633万)时,高房价在此人口规模的城市中会显著地抑制地区的创新能力;当城市人口规模处于两门槛值之间(411.633万<POPit≤827.0万)时,高房价依旧抑制创新但其影响系数变小;当城市人口规模跨过第二个门槛值(827.0万)时,高房价与创新正相关,城市人口规模所带来的正外部性在一定程度上弥补了高房价对创新的不利影响。因此,对于长三角地区房地产行业应“分城施策”,避免房地产泡沫现象的发生。

As an important factor affecting innovation cost and local quality,house price’s relationship with urban innovation in the Yangtze River Delta needs further studies.Based on the panel data of 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2009 to 2018,this paper firstly describes the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of urban house prices and innovation capacity of the cities in the region.Secondly,the two-way fixed effects regression model and threshold regression econometric models are used to test the impact of urban housing price on technological innovation,and the moderating effect of urban population size on technological innovation is further analyzed.The results are as follows.Firstly,from 2009 to 2018,house prices in the Yangtze River Delta region have been rising with fluctuation and the increase rate has accelerated in recent years.In terms of space,house prices and innovation capacity share similar pattern,and there is a“double high”phenomenon of high house price and high innovation output.Secondly,considering the urban control variables,urban population size has a positive moderating effect on high housing price and regional innovation.Besides,high housing price promotes innovation and upgrade in larger cities while has a crowding out effect on smaller cities.Thirdly,population size has a double threshold effect on regional innovation.When the urban population is less than the first threshold value(4,116,330),high house prices will significantly inhibit regional innovation.When the population is between the two thresholds(4,116,330<POPit≤8,270,000),high house price still inhibits innovation,but its influence coefficient becomes smaller.When the population crosses the second threshold(8,270,000),high house price is positively correlated with innovation,and the positive externality brought by the size of urban population makes up for the negative impact of high house price on innovation to some extent.Therefore,the government should implement policies in the real estate industry according to the specific conditions of different cities in order to avoid the real estate bubble.