五年规划变更视角下产业政策不确定性对企业现金持有行为的影响研究

The Impact of Industrial Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Cash Holdings:A Natural Experiment Based on the Change of National Five-Year Plan

基于2008~2017年之间两次五年规划变更的自然实验,分析五年规划变更带来的产业政策不确定性对企业现金持有的影响。研究发现:(1)企业在五年规划变更当年增持了现金;(2)这一现金增持行为主要存在于对政策变化敏感的行业;(3)随着五年规划变更年度的临近,企业的现金持有比例逐年上升,在新五年规划公布后随之下降;(4)融资约束强化了产业政策不确定性导致的现金增持行为;(5)企业在五年规划变更时增持的现金部分来自企业减少了对外提供的商业信用,由于商业信用能刺激销售,相应构成了增持现金的机会成本。

With the periodical change of Five-Year Plan(FYP) during 2008~2017 as natural experiment, we analyze the relationship between industrial policy uncertainty caused by the change of FYP and corporate cash holding. We find that corporates hold more cash in the year of FYP change. The result is robust with the consideration of endogeneity. The increment of cash holding is mainly in the industries more sensitive to policy change. With the approaching of FYP change year, corporates increase cash holding year by year, and decrease cash holding after new FYP is announced. We also find that financial constraint strengthens the positive relationship between industrial policy uncertainty and corporate cash holding. Finally, we find that a part of the increase of cash holding is from the decrease of trade credit provision, which means that the causality between industrial policy uncertainty and corporate cash holding is at the cost of abandoning sales revenue.