考虑参考点异质性的出口选择行为仿真研究

Simulation study on exit selection behavior considering the heterogeneity of reference points

为恰当表达突发事件下地铁站疏散人员行为决策的真实心理,基于累积前景理论,考虑决策者参考点异质性分别构建同质参考点和异质参考点的出口选择模型。通过仿真模拟探讨突发事件下行人应急疏散行为,并根据仿真结果评价指标对比剖析参考点异质性对行人出口决策行为的影响。结果表明:考虑参考点异质性能更好地揭示地铁站突发事件下行人的行为决策本质,反映个体行为决策差异,仿真模型相较传统模型对于应急疏散过程的描述更加合理;模型决策结果更趋近于问卷调查情景设置中的真实观测结果,误差仅为4.9%,具有更好的预测性能。研究结果对于突发事件下疏散仿真建模及行人行为决策研究有一定参考价值。

In order to properly express the true psychology of the behavioral decision-making of subway station evacuation personnel under emergencies,this paper,based on the cumulative prospect theory,considers the heterogeneity of decision-makers’reference points to construct an exit selection model with homogeneous reference points and heterogeneous reference points.Through simulation,the emergency evacuation behavior of pedestrians in emergencies is discussed,and the influence of reference point heterogeneity on pedestrian exit decision-making behavior is compared and analyzed based on the evaluation indicators of the simulation results.The result shows that considering the heterogeneity of reference points can better reveal the nature of the behavioral decision-making of pedestrians in subway station emergencies and reflect the differences in individual behavioral decisions.Compared with traditional models,the simulation model is more reasonable in describing the emergency evacuation process.The model decision result is closer to the real observation result in the questionnaire survey scenario setting,of which the error is only 4.9%and has higher predictive performance.The research result has certain reference value for evacuation simulation modeling and pedestrian behavior decision-making research under emergencies.