建筑施工安全生产监管模式的事故作用机理及有效性评价

The Influencing Mechanism and Effectiveness Evaluation of Safety Supervision Mode on Accidents

政府是建筑施工安全生产的主要监管机构,分析政府监管模式对事故的作用机理,并对监管模式的有效性进行评价,是创新政府监管机制的重要基础。依据中国31个地区2018年至2019年的安全生产监管数据所揭示的规律,文章提炼出中国建筑施工安全生产监管的严控准入、政策规制、以罚促管、隐患排查和安全考评五种基本模式。采用结果导向的监管模式有效性分析框架,基于客观的事故统计数据和1421条事故记录,文章分析了不同的监管模式下事故致因的特征,揭示了监管模式对事故的作用机理。根据不同监管模式下的事故率、死亡率和事故严重程度,评价了安全生产监管模式的有效性。研究结果有助于实现政府治理模式从"行为-结果"向"目标-行为"转变。结果导向的分析框架突破了成本效益分析的局限性,为监管有效性评价提供了新方法。

Supervision of safety by governments play a critical role in the maintenance of construction safety,for which analyzing the influencing mechanism of governments’ supervision modes on construction accidents and evaluating the effectiveness of such supervision modes are an important guarantee. This paper divided Chinese construction safety supervision into five modes:Policy Regulations(PR),Fines to Promote Management(FPM),Strict Control over Access(SCA),Hazard Investigation(HI),and Safety Assessment(SA)by collecting the safety supervision data of 31 administrative divisions in China from 2018 to 2019 and identifying the laws of governmental supervision. Moreover,by employing a result-oriented research framework,the paper attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of different safety supervision modes,while analyzing the accident rates,accident mortality,accident severity,and accident causes. The results show that the effectiveness of different supervision modes is quite different and cannot be simply evaluated on the basis of "good" or "bad" standards. Each supervision mode has a traction effect on specific accident characteristics. HI and FPM are the most effective in reducing the accident rate and mortality rate,but these modes are more prone to serious accidents. SCA,PR and SA can powerfully restrain the occurrence of serious accidents. In views of the impact on the accident cause,HI and SA can better reduce the correlation and complexity of the accident causes. The results would help the governments transform their supervision modes from "behavior-result" pattern to "goalbehavior" pattern. This paper will generate new methods for evaluating the supervision effectiveness and break through the long-term limitations of cost-benefit analysis.