基于水电站生产应急指挥的辅助决策模型研究及应用

Research and Application of Auxiliary Decision-Making Model for Emergency Response and Command During Operation of Hydropower Station

提高生产应急风险感知能力,提前预防,防患于未然,有效应对突发事件的各项准备,对水电站的安全生产至关重要。通过对水电站长期运行数据整理分析,深入挖掘数据价值,构建灾害发生的预测模型、应急辅助决策模型,为应急指挥工作提供人员安排、物资配备、预防措施等各项准备的辅助支撑。主要阐述了模型构建的思路、数据来源及建模方法,为水电站应急管理提供了新思路。

Improving the ability of risk perception,carrying out corresponding measures to prevent risk from happening and preparation for emergency response are essential to safe operation of hydropower stations.This paper,through analysis of long-term operation data of hydropower stations and exploration of in-depth value of the data,establishes disaster prediction model and auxiliary decision-making emergency response model which will provide auxiliary support for emergency commanding work such as personnel arrangements,material allocation,preventive measures and other preparations.The author mainly expounds in this paper the ideas of modeling,data sources and modeling methods,and provides new ideas for emergency management of hydropower stations.