后疫情时代中沙深化油气合作机遇与挑战分析

Opportunities and challenges of deepening oil and gas cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia in post-pandemic era

沙特阿拉伯油气资源丰富,是世界主要的石油生产国和出口国,油气对外合作方面采取有限度对外开放政策。2020年以来,受新冠肺炎疫情和"欧佩克+"减产的叠加影响,沙特阿拉伯石油产量和出口量下降,经济遭遇困境。在此背景下,沙特阿拉伯政府以"2030愿景"为依托,积极发展新能源,提出保障中国能源安全的优先目标。美国与沙特阿拉伯的"石油-美元-安全"关系脱钩,中沙全面战略伙伴关系得到巩固发展,沙特阿拉伯寻求深化中沙油气合作以锁定中国超大规模市场,寻求同中国深化能源金融合作,中沙可再生能源合作空间广阔,这些都是未来中沙油气合作的机遇。同时面临挑战:美国因素将持续影响中沙能源、金融合作,沙特阿拉伯的政治和安全风险仍将存在,炼化一体化项目实施存在不确定性,能源金融合作的经济性存在风险,可再生能源合作也存在多方面压力。

Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s major oil producing and exporting countries,which has rich oil and gas resources,but takes a limited foreign open policy in oil and gas industry.Since 2020,affected by the pandemic and reducing production agreement by OPEC+,both Saudi Arabia’s oil production and export volume declined,and the country’s economy encountered a difficult situation.In this context,basing on the"2030 Vision",Saudi Arabia actively develop new energy and propose the priority objective of security China’s energy demand.The United States-Saudi Arabia’s"oil-dollar-security"decoupling,the consolidated comprehensive strategic partnership of China and Saudi Arabia,China’s large-scale market for Saudi Arabia,the deepening cooperation of Chinas energy and financial cooperation,and the broad cooperation space of renewable energy in China and Saudi Arabia,are oil and gas cooperation opportunities in the future.However,challenges in the future include that the United States will continue to affect the energy and financial cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia,political and security risks will still exist in Saudi Arabia.There are uncertainties in the implementation of the refinery integration project,economic risks in the energy and financial cooperation,and pressures from various aspects in the renewable energy cooperation.