基于技术功能指标的技术生命周期判断方法研究

Method Research of Technology Life Cycle Judgement Based on Technical Function Indicators

[研究目的]技术生命周期准确、合理、有效的判断不仅有助于及时明确国内外技术发展动态、积极调整技术发展战略,更能尽早捕捉技术领域未来的发展契机和可能的发展趋势。[研究方法]以专利及论文文献为基础,构建了含有专利与论文外部特征指标与内容层面技术功能指标在内的技术生命周期多指标测度体系及技术生命周期指数模型,然后采用已知技术生命周期结果的阴极射线管显示技术与薄膜晶体管液晶显示技术验证了所构建技术生命周期多指标测度体系的有效性。[研究结论]较S曲线、Fish-Pry模型而言,该研究所构建的技术生命周期多指标测度体系在技术生命周期不同发展阶段分界限方面(萌芽期与成长期分界限、成长期与成熟期分界限、成熟期与衰退期分界限)更加符合实际,更加精准。

[Research purpose]Accurate,reasonable,effective judgment of technology life cycle not only can help clear technology development trend timely at home and abroad,adjust technology development strategy actively,but also can capture the future development opportunities and trends of technologies.[Research method]Based on patents and papers,a multi-indicators evaluation system of technology life cycle and a technology life cycle index model were constructed,which included external characteristics of patents and papers and technical function indicators at the content level.Then the validity of the technology life cycle multi-indicators judgement system and the exponential model were verified by the cathode ray tube display technology and the thin film transistor liquid crystal display technology with known technology life cycle results.[Research conclusion]The multi-indicators measurement system of technology life cycle constructed was more realistic and accurate in the demarcation of different development stages of technology life cycle(demarcation between germination stage and growth stage,demarcation between growth stage and maturity stage,demarcation between maturity stage and decline stage).