资本流动逆转对新兴市场国家的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型的模拟

The Effect of Capital Flow Reversal on Emerging Market Countries:Based on the GTAP Model Simulation

采用基于GTAP模型的Malcolm方法刻画了不同新兴市场国家资本流动逆转的3种状态及其对新兴市场国家的冲击效应。研究发现:资本流动逆转对3类新兴市场国家经济增长的影响均存在门槛效应,但门槛值呈现差异性;资本流动逆转均会促使3类新兴市场国家服务业产出下降、贸易条件恶化及福利水平下滑,导致出口总值增加、进口总值下降,其中资本管制型国家冲击最为严重;资本流动逆转对其他国家的经济增长、进口规模、贸易条件和福利水平均起到改善作用。

The Malcolm method based on GTAP model is used to describe the three states of capital flow reversals in different emerging market countries and their impact on them.The research shows that:first,the effect of capital flow reversals on economic growth of the three kinds of emerging market countries has threshold effect,but the threshold value is different.Second,the reversal of capital flows will lead to a decline in services output,a deterioration in terms of trade and a decline in welfare levels in the three emerging markets.It will lead to an increase in the total value of exports and a decrease in the total value of imports in the three emerging markets.Finally,the reversal of capital flows has improved economic growth,the size of imports,terms of trade and welfare water averages in countries other than the three emerging markets.