碳中和背景下能源电力产业链预警研究框架

Research Framework for Early Warning of Energy and Power Industry Chain Under the Background of Carbon Neutrality

碳中和背景下,以新能源为主体的能源电力产业链的运行受到高比例可再生能源波动的影响与严格的碳排放约束,常规的能源电力预警方法和系统面临新的挑战,为此提出在此背景下能源电力产业链预警的研究框架。首先,解释碳中和背景下能源电力产业链预警研究所面临的新目标和新内涵,介绍预警研究的要素、原则和一般过程;在此基础之上,考虑新能源消纳、碳排放、供需平衡、电力市场与碳市场等方面因素,搭建碳中和背景下能源电力产业链的预警指标框架;最后,总结预警模型方法的相关研究思路,建立能源电力产业链预警系统开发框架。所研究的内容形成一套包含多维度指标管理、预警模型及系统开发的碳中和背景下能源电力产业链预警研究框架,为能源电力产业链预警方法和系统的发展建设提供参考。

Under the background of carbon neutrality,the operation of the energy and power industry chain with new energy as the main body is affected by fluctuations of high-proportional renewable energy and strict carbon emission constraints.The conventional energy and power early warning methods and systems face with new challenges.For this reason,this paper puts forward the research framework of early warning of energy and power industry chain under the background of carbon neutrality.It firstly explains new objectives and connotations of early warning of energy and power industry chain under the background of carbon neutrality,and introduces the elements,principles and general process.On this basis,considering factors such as new energy consumption,carbon emissions,supply and demand balance,power market and carbon market,the early warning index framework of energy and power industry chain under the background of carbon neutrality is set up.Finally,this paper summarizes the research ideas of early warning model method,and builds the development framework of early warning system of energy and power industry chain.The research contents form a framework for early warning research of energy and power industry chain in the context of carbon neutrality,including multi-dimensional index management,early warning model and system development,which provides a reference for the development and construction of early warning method and system of energy and power industry chain.