基于知识网络强弱关系变迁测度新兴主题的未来不确定性

A Measurement Method to the Uncertainty Trend of Emerging Research Topics Using the Changes in Knowledge Network Strength

未来发展的不确定性是新兴研究主题的一个重要特征,其趋势预测对新兴研究主题的发展规划尤为关键。文章首先综述了新兴主题的未来不确定性分析及测度方法,并调研了科学发现过程中的不确定性及其测度方法。其次,在结合新兴研究主题识别的基础上,提出通过分析社区数量、弱关联数量、强关联数量的变化特征预判新兴研究主题未来发展不确定性的方法。最后,通过干细胞领域的实证分析证明了该方法可以在一定程度上测度新兴研究主题未来发展的不确定性,为新兴前沿主题的科技政策规划提供有效支撑。

Prediction of uncertainty trends in research and development is imperative for the planning of emerging research topics. We firstly,review the uncertainty analysis and measurement methods of emerging research topics and determine the uncertainty and measurement methods in the process of scientific discovery. Secondly,we identify emerging research topics and predict the uncertainty of the future development of emerging research topics by observing the changing characteristics of the number of communities and the number of weak and strong links. Finally,based on empirical evidence,we found that our proposed method can measure the uncertainty of the future uncertainty trend of emerging research topics to a certain extent. This research method can provide effective support policy planning in science and technology on emerging research topics.