汇率对中国加工贸易出口份额的影响:市场需求视角

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on China’s Processing Trade Share of Exports:An Analysis from the Perspective of Market Demand

本文基于海关细分企业、产品及目的地层面数据,研究中国出口结构中加工贸易份额变化的特征和趋势。数据分析指出2005年后加工贸易出口份额明显下降。本文提出汇率变动影响中国加工贸易出口份额的理论机制是,汇率变动导致一般贸易和加工贸易模式下市场需求和出口利润发生变化,从而影响出口企业贸易模式选择。经验研究发现,人民币升值会带来中国出口加工贸易份额下降,加工贸易出口份额下降在国外需求规模相对更大的行业更明显。基准结论对一系列稳健性检验都保持成立。

This paper studies the characteristics and trends of changes in the processing trade share in China’s total export structure based on transaction-level trade data(Chinese customs data)from 2002 to 2011.Our analysis indicates that:(i)the processing trade share in total exports declined considerably after 2005;(ii)the exchange rate movement affects the exporter’s choice between ordinary and processing trade modes by inducing changes in market demand and export profits,thereby affecting the choice of trade modes by exporters;and(iii)empirical analysis finds that RMB appreciation results in a decline in China’s processing trade export share,with a greater magnitude in industries with a relatively larger foreign demand size.This baseline conclusion remains valid for a series of robustness tests.