金融业开放与宏观经济去杠杆

Financial Sector Openness and Macroeconomic Deleveraging

在金融业开放不断加快的同时,国内经济正面临着杠杆率高企、金融风险逐步显现的挑战。在该情形下,金融业开放是否有利于国内宏观经济杠杆率的下降?国内去杠杆政策对产出的负向冲击是否会受金融业开放下资本跨境流动的影响?本文在开放经济框架下构建一个多部门DSGE模型,分析和讨论去杠杆冲击和外部冲击影响经济波动的作用渠道,并分析金融业开放程度的高低如何对冲击的传导产生影响。研究发现,国内的去杠杆冲击与外部冲击都会引起资本流出。这一方面会带来国内融资成本的上升;另一方面会影响金融中介的资产负债表,造成金融中介存贷溢价的上升,并通过金融加速器效应进一步放大,导致企业投资和国内产出剧烈下滑,造成整体经济宏观杠杆率的上升。并且金融业开放水平越高,引起的经济衰退程度越大,宏观杠杆率上升越多。为了降低这种负面影响,本文在厘清国内外冲击传导渠道的基础上,探讨了资本管制税率的作用路径和作用效果,并提出了相关的干预规则。

While China is speeding up the financial sector openness,the domestic economy in China is also facing the challenge of high leverage ratio and gradual emergence of financial risks.Under this circumstance,will the opening of financial industry help with the decline of domestic macroeconomic leverage?Will the financial sector openness and cross-border capital flows exacerbate the negative effect of the domestic deleveraging policy on output?This paper constructs a multi-sector DSGE model in an open economy framework,analyzing and discussing the channels through which the deleveraging shocks and external shocks affect economic fluctuations,along with how the degree of financial openness affects the transmission of shocks.The results show that both the deleveraging shocks and external shocks will cause cross-border capital outflows,affecting the balance sheets of financial intermediaries,and resulting in the rise in deposit and loan premiums.Amplified by the financial accelerator effect,it will finally lead to a sharp decline in the level of domestic investment and output,giving rise to an increase in the macro leverage ratio.Besides,a higher level of financial openness will bring about a greater degree of economic recession and macro leverage increase.In order to reduce the above-mentioned negative impact,after clarifying the transmission channels of domestic and external shocks,this paper further explores the path and effect of capital control tax rate,and formulates relevant intervention rules.