降低单位缴费率对城镇人口养老金替代率的一般均衡效应

General Equilibrium Effect of Reducing Contribution Rate of Social Pooling on Pension Replacement Rate for Urban Population

研究目标:城镇职工基本养老保险单位缴费率降低对城镇人口养老金替代率产生的一般均衡效应。研究方法:构建两期叠代模型并对模型求解来定量模拟城镇职工基本养老保险单位缴费率降低4%之后对城镇人口养老金替代率产生的一般均衡效应。研究发现:在其他条件不变的情况下,依据城镇居民社会养老保险个人账户基金缴费率不同,把城镇职工基本养老保险单位缴费率由20%降至16%之后,会引起城镇人口养老金替代率下降8.0%~8.1%,引起城镇职工基本养老金替代率下降8.1%~8.2%,引起城镇居民社会养老金替代率下降5.8%~6.9%。研究创新:构建了降低单位缴费率对城镇人口养老金替代率的一般均衡效应模型并依据模型对一般均衡效应进行了定量模拟,丰富了城镇人口养老金替代率研究。研究价值:为精确衡量降低单位缴费率对城镇人口养老金替代率的一般均衡效应以及未来基本养老保险政策制定和完善提供理论参考。

Research Objectives: To explore the general equilibrium effect on pension replacement rate for urban population by reducing contribution rate of social pooling of Basic Endowment Insurance for Urban Employees(BEIUE). Research Methods: The paper builds up a two-period overlapping generation model and solves the model to simulate quantitatively the general equilibrium effect on pension replacement rate for urban population by reducing 4 percent contribution rate of social pooling of BEIUE. Research Findings: Holding other things constant, the study result shows that, corresponding to different contribution rate of individual account of Basic Endowment Insurance for Urban residents(BEIUR), reducing contribution rate of social pooling of BEIUE from 20 percent to 16 percent will cause the replacement rate of pension for urban population to drop by 8 percent to 8.1 percent, make the replacement rate of pension for BEIUE decrease by 8.1 percent to 8.2 percent, and let the replacement rate of pension for BEIUR decrease by 5.8 percent to 6.9 percent. Research Innovations: The paper builds up a general equilibrium effect model on pension replacement rate for urban population by reducing contribution rate of social pooling of BEIUE and gets the quantitative simulation for general equilibrium effect by the model, which enriches the study on the pension replacement rate. Research Value: The paper provides a theoretical reference for accurately measuring the general equilibrium effect on pension replacement rate for urban population by reducing contribution rate of social pooling of BEIUE and for formulating and improving the basic pension insurance policy in the future.