基于情景规划的城市社区公共卫生安全规划研究

Public Health and Safety Planning of Urban Community based on Scenario Planning

城市是一个复杂且庞大的有机体,在面对突发的公共安全事件时,规划需要理性地判断和稳定地运营。因此,构建行之有效的社区安全规划和治理策略,能够减少直接和次生灾害的危害。文章以城市社区为研究对象,拟运用“情景规划”方法至城市社区公共卫生安全规划中,在对不确定性因素分析与评价基础上,通过定位焦点问题、分析影响因素、建构模拟情景和方案与评估的方法应对突发公共卫生事件,从而完善以社区为单元的公共卫生安全规划。

City is a complex and huge system.In the face of sudden public security events,planning needs rational judgment and stable operation.Therefore,the construction of effective community safety planning and governance strategies can reduce the harm of direct and secondary disasters.This paper takes urban communities as the research object,and plans to apply the"scenario planning"method to urban community public health and safety planning.Based on the analysis and evaluation of uncertain factors,this study will respond to public health emergencies by positioning focus issues,analyzing influencing factors,constructing simulated scenarios,schemes and evaluation,so as to improve the public health and safety planning with community as the unit.