观察与实验:因果视角

Observation and experiment:a causal perspective

观察和实验及其设计、相关的概念和内涵仍然模糊,影响着研究设计的正确认识及因果推断有效性的判断。本文借用物理学的相变概念,结合因果思维与因果图,首先建立了事物的属性及其状态、事件与现象之间的关系;接着识别了两种现象获取方式——人为观察和人为实验之间相反的因果结构,及其与暴露的干预、分配在因果推断研究中受各自的因果机制影响;最后,识别了干预系因果概念,是自然因果律基础上联系已知的现象和/或需经测量而获得的现象之间的核心纽带;基于此分析了研究设计二分类的策略,以干预法和非干预法的分类更为清晰。观察和实验提供了所有科学知识的基础,应是内涵统一的概念。基于因果律及其测量过程可能是实现研究设计精准分类的最佳选项之一,值得深入研究。

Observation and experiment and their related connotations and concepts remain vague,which affects the correct understanding of research design and the judgment of the validity of causal inference.This article borrows the concept of phase transition in physics,combines causal thinking and causal diagrams,firstly establishes the relationships among the attribute,state,event,and phenomenon,and then identifies two ways with the opposite causal structures to acquire phenomena—human observations and human manipulated experiments.In causal inference,the ways mentioned above,intervention and assignment of exposure are affected by their own causal mechanisms.Finally,intervention is a causal concept,a core link among known phenomena,unknown phenomena available for measurement,and natural causality.Based on this,the two strategies in classifying research design are analyzed,and intervention method and non-intervention method are proposed,as is comprehensive and concise.Observations and experiments provide the basis for all scientific knowledge and should be viewed as concepts with a unified connotation.The accurate classification of research designs based on the law of causality and measurement process may be one of the best options worthy of in-depth study.