中国各省创新水平关键影响因素及发展路径识别——基于模糊集定性比较分析

Key Influencing Factors and Development Path Identification of Regional Innovation Performance in China Using Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

以往研究分析了许多影响区域创新水平的因素,但更多是孤立地分析单个因素的作用效果,缺乏对不同因素之间协同联动所产生的组态效应的关注。应用定性比较分析(QCA,qualitative comparative analysis)方法,运用2015—2018年我国省级面板数据,基于Furman的区域创新能力框架,研究高(非高)区域创新水平组态、组态解时间演变趋势和空间情境差异,分析区域创新的发展模式与路径。结果表明:(1)产生高区域创新水平的组态类型为:产业主导下的知识基础促进型、产业主导下的研发投入促进型、风险投资缺失下的创新要素弥补型。导致非高区域创新水平的可能原因包括创新基础缺失、创新环境联系质量不足、产业集聚程度不高等。(2)随着时间演变,高区域创新水平组态表现出主导型、促进型、替代型、软化型等不同类型,正是区域因地制宜,扬长避短选择适合自己创新发展路径的反映。(3)东部和中西部创新发展的关键因素分别是创新基础和产业集群,而联系质量在一定程度上限制了东部和中西部的创新发展。

Innovation is the source of regional economic growth and competitive advantage.In recent years,although the ability to gather innovation resources of different Chinese provinces has been growing all the time,the discrepancy of innovation output level among them has become wider.According to the system theory,the development of regional innovation system is influenced by innovation capability of different actors and their interactions with regional context and innovation elements,which lies in two aspects,the key factors as well as development paths combined by these factors.Therefore,identifying key factors and their combination paths offers quite a few insights into the mechanism behind regional innovation heterogeneity.Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2015 to 2018,this study utilizes Qualitative Comparative Analysis integrating 6 conditions of innovation foundation,industrial cluster and quality of linkage to analyze key factors and development paths of regional innovation level,and explore their spatial-temporal differences.The conclusions are as follows.Firstly,configurations of high regional innovation level are:Cluster leading with knowledge stock supplementing type;Cluster leading with R&D investment supplementing type;Venture capital lacking while innovation resources substituting type.The possible causes of non-high regional innovation level include lack of innovation foundation,innovation environment support and industrial cluster’s leading role.Secondly,multiple QCAs across different periods reveal obvious differences in regional innovation paths among different periods,which can be categorized into the following groups.According to the dimension of core conditions in the configuration,there are 4 development paths leading to high regional innovation level,including factor-driven,industry-leading,environment-supporting and comprehensive development type.The corresponding key factors are innovation foundations,industrial clusters,quality of linkages and their combinations,respectively.The factor-driven type operates by promoting R&D inputs and economic growth so as to increasing knowledge stock and knowledge flow of the region,laying solid foundations for further innovation.The industry-leading type is led by industrial clusters with a variety of interactions among different innovation actors.The environment-supporting type relies on quality of linkages between innovation actors and innovation supporters and thus creating regional context beneficial for innovation.Comprehensive development type functions by core conditions from different dimensions.According to the completeness of conditions in the configuration,the configuration that leads to high regional innovation level can be divided into 4 groups as well:supplementing,leading,substituting and softening type.There are no missing conditions in supplementing type,and the key factors further consolidate present conditions.Leading type does not have missing conditions,either,and the key factors belongs to high industrial agglomeration which plays a leading role in regional innovation development.Moreover,there is a lack of marginal conditions in the substituting type,but the key factors substitute missing conditions to an extent.There is a lack of core conditions in the softening type,and other conditions exert stronger substitution effect on the missing core conditions.Choosing different innovation development paths represents a region’s ability to make the best of its advantages and bypass its shortcomings while fitting local conditions,which reflects the heterogeneity of regional innovation development paths.Thirdly,configuration analysis and fixed index analysis show that there is obvious spatial heterogeneity in the key factors and development paths of regional innovation between the eastern and central-western provinces:the key factor of innovation in eastern provinces is innovation foundation,while that in central and western provinces is industrial cluster.The constraints of regional innovation in both places are the quality of linkage.It shows that in order to improve China’s innovation performance,the government should not only pay attention to the input of innovation elements,but also attach great significance to the interactions and linkages between different conditions so as to achieve high-quality and high-level development.