社会热点事件网络舆情与谣言的耦合机制研究——基于近4年数据的案例分析

The Coupling Mechanism of Network Public Opinion and Rumors of Social Hot Sopt——Case Analysis Based on the Data of the Last 4 Years

【目的/意义】互联网背景下社会热点事件层出不穷,因网络高关注度极易引发舆情与谣言危机,舆情与谣言演变时关系紧密,通过分析舆情与谣言耦合机制,为社会热点事件网络治理提供指导。【方法/过程】选取近4年28个社会热点事件,筛选其中表现突出的耦合样本,可视化呈现了社会热点事件网络舆情与谣言的耦合模型,进而利用场域理论中行动者、资本与惯习的内、外循环机理揭示网络舆情与谣言的耦合机制。【结果/结论】揭示了社会热点事件网络舆情与谣言的一致演变耦合模型、超前分歧耦合模型和滞后分歧耦合模型,并深入分析了三类耦合模型中不同的耦合机制,包括两场域互振共变机制、谣言场抑制与舆情场反攻机制,以及舆情场主导与谣言场破茧机制。对于社会热点事件网络舆情与谣言的科学判定及精准施策具有重要意义。【创新/局限】结合多元研究方法揭示舆情与谣言间的双向互动关系,在舆情与谣言耦合演变影响因素的理论研究仍需加强。

【Purpose/significance】In the context of the Internet,social hot spot emerges in an endless stream,which can easily trigger public opinion and rumor crisis due to high online attention.Public opinion and rumor have a close relationship when they evolve.By analyzing the coupling mechanism of public opinion and rumor,it provides guidance for the network governance of social hotspot.Through the analysis of the coupling mechanism of public opinion and rumors,we can give the network governance enlightenment of social hot spot.【Method/process】This paper selects 28 social hot spots in the past four years,selects the prominent coupling samples from public opinion and rumors data,analyzes three types of coupling models visually,and reveals the coupling mechanism of network public opinion and rumors by using the internal and external circulation mechanism of actors,capital and habits in the field theory.【Result/conclusion】The paper reveals the mutual vibration and common change mechanism of the two fields coupling the evolution of public opinion and rumors,the rumor field inhibition and public opinion field counterattack mechanism of leading divergence coupling,the public opinion field leading and rumor field breaking mechanism of lagging divergence coupling.This study is of great significance for the scientific judgment and accurate policy of online public opinions and rumors of social hot spot.【Innovation/limitation】Combined with multiple research methods to reveal the two-way interaction between public opinions and rumors,the theoretical research on the influencing factors of the coupling evolution of public opinions and rumors still needs to be strengthened.