中国城市群区域经济差异、动态演变与收敛性——基于十大城市群夜间灯光数据的研究

Regional Economic Disparity, Dynamic Evolution and Convergence of Urban Agglomerations in China——Research Based on Nighttime Light Data of Ten Urban Agglomerations

随着城市群逐渐成为我国区域经济形态的空间主体,探讨其差异性与趋同性对于推进我国区域协调发展意义重大。文章利用2000-2018年十大城市群的夜间灯光数据,采用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计考察我国城市群区域经济差异及动态演变,并引入空间计量模型分析收敛特征,研究发现:我国城市群区域差异在不断缩小,城市群间差异是导致我国区域差异的主要原因,演变趋势大致可分为逐渐扩大、先扩大后缩小两种类型;城市群经济发展在空间上具有显著的正相关性,京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群位于高-高集聚中,而辽中南、长江中游、中原、成渝、关中平原城市群位于低-低集聚中;城市群总体和各城市群均存在明显的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛特征,外商投资、人力资本、科技创新对城市群经济收敛具有显著正向影响,而工业化水平具有显著负向影响。因此需要在城市群经济增长和区域协调之间寻求"平衡博弈",建立发挥比较优势的区域协调机制和"多点多极支撑"区域发展格局,提升城市群经济开放能力、人力资本水平和科技创新能力,积极融入"一带一路"建设,促进产业结构优化调整和转型升级。

As urban agglomerations gradually become the spatial main body of our country’s regional economic morphology, it is of great significance to explore their differences and convergences to promote coordinated regional development in our country. The article uses the nighttime light data of the ten major urban agglomerations from 2000 to 2018, uses Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation to investigate the regional economic differences and dynamic evolution of urban agglomerations in China, and introduces a spatial econometric model to analyze the convergence characteristics.The research shows that the regions differences of urban agglomerations in China are constantly shrinking.Differences between urban agglomerations are the main reason for regional differences in China. The evolution trend can be roughly divided into two types: gradual expansion, first expansion and then shrinking. The economic development of urban agglomerations has a significant positive correlation in space. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations are located in high-high agglomerations, while urban agglomerations in central and southern Liaoning, middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Central Plains, Chengdu-Chongqing, and Guanzhong Plain are located in low-low agglomerations;the overall urban agglomeration and each urban agglomeration have obvious absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence characteristics, foreign investment, human capital, and technological innovation have a significant positive impact on the economic convergence of urban agglomerations, while the level of industrialization has a significant negative impact. Therefore, it is necessary to seek a "balance game" between the economic growth of urban agglomerations and regional coordination, establish a regional coordination mechanism that exerts comparative advantages and a regional development pattern of "multi-point and multi-polar support", improve the economic opening capacity, human capital level and technological innovative capacity of urban agglomerations, actively integrate into the "One Belt One Road" construction, and promote the optimization, adjustment, transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.