人民币兑美元实际汇率对中美贸易的影响——货币政策传导及其调节效应

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate of RMB to US Dollar on China-US Trade——Transmission of Monetary Policy and Moderating Effect

以国际收支理论为基础梳理人民币兑美元实际汇率对中美贸易的传导路径,验证中美货币政策的传导及对双边贸易的调节效应。利用1996年12月至2020年10月数据研究发现:采用实际汇率测度汇率对中美贸易的影响比名义汇率更有效,且中美贸易对实际汇率和货币政策的脉冲响应无时变特征,但存在时滞效应。从人民币兑美元实际汇率对中美贸易的影响机制看,实际汇率波动对进出口的非同步性影响引致中美贸易变化。中美两国宽松货币政策对双边贸易和进出口均有正向效应,但不同传导渠道的货币政策有异质性。结论表明,当前中国货币政策传导渠道对宏观经济具有较强的调控能力,疏通常规性货币政策传导渠道仍有政策空间。

Western exchange rate theory shows that exchange rate change has significant impact on international trade.Based on the balance of payments theory,it combines the transmission path of the real exchange rate of RMB to US dollar to China-US trade,and verifies the transmission of monetary policy and moderating effect.Research based on the data from December 1996 to October 2020 finds that the real exchange rate to measure the effect of China-US trade is more effective than the nominal exchange rate;the impulse response of China-US trade to real exchange rate and monetary policy have no time-varying characteristics,but produce time-lagged effects;the asynchronous characters of the effect of real exchange rate fluctuations on imports and exports have led to changes in China-US trade;the loose monetary policies of China and U.S.have positive effects on trade,imports and exports,but the monetary policies of different transmission channels are heterogeneous.The conclusion is that in the current period there are policy spaces to dredge conventional monetary policy transmission channels.