关于中国发展战略调整和未来增长前景的分析

An Analysis of China’s Development Strategy Adjustment and Future Growth Prospects

出口导向发展战略取得了成功,同时出现了一些新情况:一是国际市场容纳能力有限;二是产业体系抵御外部冲击能力下降;三是自主创新动力不足;四是资源跨境跨时错配。要提高自主创新能力,我国须加大研发投资力度,深化教育和科研体系改革。未来中国经济增速将受到来自第三产业比重上升但效率较低、人口老龄化、绿色发展等因素的综合影响,建议采取更为扩张性的、积极的宏观政策,使经济增速保持在6%左右。

China’s export-oriented development strategy has been successful,while some new situations have emerged.First,the capacity of the international market is limited;Second,the ability of the industrial system to resist external shocks has decreased;Third,the independent innovation power is insufficient;Fourth,there has been mismatch in the cross-border and time-transcending allocation of resources.To improve the ability of independent innovation,China must increase investment in R&D and deepen the reform of educational and scientific research system.In the future,China’s economic growth will be comprehensively affected by the rising proportion of the tertiary industry whose efficiency is relatively low compared,aging population,green development and other factors.It is suggested that China adopt a more expansionary and active macro policy to keep the GDP growth rate at about 6%.