中国通胀目标的估计与影响分析

Research on Estimation and Impact of China’s Inflation Target

本文利用变系数不可观测要素模型,以拓展后的卡尔曼滤波估计政府的通胀目标并评估其对于实际通胀的影响。研究发现,本文估计的通胀目标自2012年以来显著高于实际通胀,其有效拉抬通胀预期,成功抵消经济增速放缓对总体通货膨胀的抑制。通胀目标与实际经济行为对通货膨胀的影响在危机后均显著提升,中国不存在菲利普斯曲线扁平化现象,政府通胀目标对于实际通胀起到良好的锚定作用。

This paper uses the variable coefficient unobservable component model and the extended Kalman filtering to estimate the government’s inflation target and evaluate its impact on real inflation. It is found that the inflation target estimated in this paper has been significantly higher than the real inflation since 2012, which effectively raises inflation expectations and successfully offsets the inhibition of economic slowdown on overall inflation. The impact of inflation target and real economic behavior on inflation has increased significantly after the financial crisis. There is no flattening of Phillips curve in China, and the government inflation target plays a good anchoring role in real inflation.