新冠肺炎疫情对全国省会城市客运航空网络的影响研究

Impact of COVID-19 on Passenger Airline Network of China’s Capital Cities

为了研究新冠肺炎疫情对全国省会城市客运航空网络的影响,基于2020年11月至2021年1月全国疫情数据,将疫情发展划分为常态化防控、轻微、严重三个阶段,并利用社会网络分析法对该时间段全国省会城市之间开行的客运航班数据展开分析。本文研究结果显示:(1)当网络中占据领导地位的省会城市暴发轻微疫情时,会提高周边拥有发达铁路网络的省会城市的网络影响力;然而,当前者暴发严重疫情时,全国各省会城市的网络影响力会全面下降;(2)当热点旅游省份暴发轻微疫情时,会提高远离疫情暴发地的其他旅游省份的省会城市的网络影响力;(3)一个城市的网络控制力越高,越说明其处在网络中的“中转瓶颈”,随着疫情发展,在中东部地区按需新增临时短途航线可以有效破除网络中的“中转瓶颈”。

To study the impact of COVID-19 on passenger airline network of capital cities in China,the COVID-19 data nationwide from November 2020 to January 2021 is collected and the development of COVID-19 is divided into three stages,i.e.,the regular prevention and control stage,the mild outbreak stage,and the serious outbreak stage.Moreover,social network analysis method is used to analyze the data.The key findings are as follows:(1)When the leading capital cities in the network break out mild COVID-19,the network influence of their nearby capital cities that are equipped with developed railway network will increase.However,when these cities break out serious COVID-19,all of the capital cities’network influence will decrease.(2)The mild outbreak of COVID-19 in the popular tourist provinces will increase the network influence of the capital cities of other tourist provinces.(3)The high network control power of a capital city reflects the bottleneck of the network in terms of transferring passengers.Furthermore,as the COVID-19 spreads,operating new temporary short-haul flights in central and eastern China can effectively break the network bottleneck.