基于物质流方法的中国铅资源使用存量研究

Research on the in-use stock of lead in China based on substance-flow method

中国是铅资源消费大国,但铅资源保障程度并不高,再生铅作为未来铅资源供应来源,科学计算其使用存量可为铅资源供应提供重要的数据支撑。本文搭建了铅物质流动态分析模型,采用两种方法核算铅使用存量:采用自上而下方法剖析了1949—2018年中国社会经济系统中铅元素输入量、流出量和存量的动态演化,核算了铅使用存量;采用自下而上方法分析了最为重要的铅酸蓄电池各类型的载体保有量、电池容量的变化情况,并计算2018年铅酸蓄电池的铅使用存量,进而推算该年铅使用存量。结果显示,自上而下方法计算2018年的铅使用存量为2320万t,自下而上方法为1892万t,两种方法计算结果的差异率为14%,整体可靠。铅使用存量主要累积于铅酸蓄电池中,累计消费占比约为71%。我国应该制定相关政策和法规,完善再生铅回收体系,优化再生铅企业与电池生产企业布局,逐步提高再生铅利用率。

China is a major lead consumer,but its degree of security for lead resources is not high.The scientific calculation of the in-use stock of secondary lead as a supply for future lead demand can provide significant data support for lead resource supply.In this paper,a dynamic analysis model of lead material flow is built,with two methods used to verify in-use lead stock:one is the top-down method to analyze the lead inflow,outflow and stock in China’s socio-economic system from 1949 to 2018 to calculate the in-use lead stock;the other is the bottom-up approach to analyze the changes of the most important types of carriers and battery capacity of lead-acid batteries,and calculate the in-use lead stock of lead-acid batteries in 2018,from which the in-use lead stock of the year can be calculated.Results show that the in-use lead stock of 2018 is calculated as 23200000 t by the top-down method,and 18920000 t by the bottom-up method.The difference rate between the two methods is 14%,which is reliable in general.The in-use lead stock mainly lies in lead-acid batteries,and the cumulative consumption accounts for approximately 71%.Relevant policies and regulations should be formulated in China to improve the recovery system of secondary lead,optimize the layout of secondary lead enterprises and battery producers,and gradually increase the utilization rate of secondary lead.