越南高层权力结构调整对中越关系的影响

Vietnam’s Power Structure Adjustment after the 13th National Congress and Its Impact On China-Vietnam Relations

2021年1月越共十三大后,越南高层权力结构重回“四驾马车”体制,以“四驾马车”、越共中央政治局和中央委员会三个层级构成的高层权力体系进一步稳固。在“四驾马车”层面,在回归原有权力框架的同时却完全突破了长期坚持的南北人员对等和权力对等的惯例和默契,使得顶层权力出现了失衡的态势。在政治局层面,高层权力又在南北间呈现出前所未有的均衡状态,特别是在接班人梯队中南方占据了绝对优势。在中央委员会层面,军方势力急剧上升,成为越南高层权力体系调整又一个非常突出的特点。越南此次高层权力结构的调整,虽然在不同的层级出现了向某一部份倾斜的现象,但在总体上依然保持着大致的平衡。此次在不同层级权力失衡的现象实际上体现了越南高层对其部分政策优先程度的判断,其中既有促进中越关系稳定和两国合作的积极因素,也有不和谐的潜流,我方只有未雨绸缪,才能推动中越关系更健康的发展。

After the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam(CPV),the leadership structure of Vietnam has reverted to the"four pillars"model.The three-level power centre,which consists of the"four pillars",the Politburo of the CPV and the Central Committee,is further consolidated.In the"four pillars"model,while returning to the original power configuration,the balanced geographical representation betweennorthern and southern regions among top leaders was broken.Subsequently,the long-standing norm and tacit understanding of power balance has been completely broken,resulting in an imbalanced power structure.Inthe Politburo,an unprecedented balance between South and North has been demonstrated,especially that the South has achieved an absolute advantage in the succession echelon.In the Central Committee,the sharp rise of the military power has become another prominent feature of the adjustment of Vietnamesepower system.Although in all threelevels,the adjustment of Vietnam’s leadership structure has shifted,in general it still maintains a rough balance.The power imbalance at different levels actually reflects the judgment of the Vietnamese leadership on their policypriorities.There are positive factors that may promote the stability of Sino-Vietnamese relations and cooperation,but also potential risks.To advance healthier development of the China-Vietnam relations,China needs to prepareahead.