人口老龄化是否影响了文化产品进口?--基于中国省级与国际面板数据的中介效应模型

Does Population Aging Influenced the Import of Cultural Products?--Mediating Effect Model Based on China's Provincial and International Panel Data

21世纪以来,中国文化产品进口额增速呈现波动下降趋势,已有文献大多聚焦于语言、文化、移民、市场保护等因素,本文则重点关注了同期人口老龄化趋势对文化产品进口的影响。以老年抚养比反映老龄化程度,利用中国31个省(区、市)2002~2018年的面板数据模型发现,各省(区、市)老年抚养比的提高显著降低了书籍报刊等6种核心文化产品进口额占货物进口额的比重,经济发展水平相对较低的中西部地区文化产品进口比重受老龄化的负向影响比东部地区更大。进一步利用中介效应模型研究发现,全国整体尤其是中西部地区老年抚养比的提高使得当地储蓄率被动上升,从而导致作为非必需消费品的文化产品进口比重下降。利用52个国家2002~2018年面板数据的稳健性检验发现,高收入国家老年抚养比的上升提高了文化产品进口比重,而一般收入国家老年抚养比的上升则如同中国一样降低了文化产品进口比重。本文丰富了文化产品贸易影响因素方面的文献,明确了不同经济发展水平下人口老龄化对文化产品进口的差异性影响,为各国政府在人口老龄化背景下制定文化产品贸易政策提供了理论依据。

Since the 21st century,the growth rate of China's cultural products import has shown a fluctuating downward trend.Most of the existing studies focus on language,culture,immigration,market protection and other factors,while this paper focuses on the impact of the trend of population aging on the import of cultural products in the same period.Taking the Old Dependency Ratio(ODR)as an indicator of the aging degree,using the panel data model of 31 provinces in China for 2002-2018 years,we found that the increase of ODR in different provinces significantly reduced the proportion of 6 core cultural products imports to the import volume of goods.The proportion of cultural products import in central and western provinces with relatively low level of economic development is more seriously affected by aging than that of eastern provinces.Further using the channel research of the intermediary effect model,we find that the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly in the whole country,especially in the central and western provinces,makes the local savings rate rise passively,which leads to the decline of the import proportion of cultural products as non-essential consumer goods.Based on the panel data of 52 countries from 2002-2018,we found that the increase of ODR in high-income countries increases the import proportion of cultural products,while the increase ODR of general income countries reduces the import proportion of cultural products just like China.This study enriches the literature on the influencing factors of cultural products trade,clarifies the differential influence of population aging on cultural products import under different economic development levels,and provides a theoretical basis for governments to formulate cultural products import policies under the background of population aging.