三次产业与城镇化的结构演进比较研究

The Comparative Study on the Structural Evolution of Three Industries and Urbanization

本文运用非线性MS(M)-AR(p)模型,对第一、第二、第三产业拉动率及城镇化速度进行结构演进状态划分及转移概率分析,以探索三次产业结构的演化与升级及其与城镇化进程之间的关系。结果表明,1978~2017年,第一产业拉动率在三次产业中最小,在较长时期处于“低拉动区制”和“中拉动区制”。1978~2013年,第二产业拉动率在三次产业中最大,并于样本区间初期不断在“低拉动区制”与“高拉动区制”之间频繁变迁。第三产业拉动率于2014~2017年取代第二产业,成为推动中国经济增长的核心动力,第三产业拉动率在三种区制状态之间的变迁比第一、第二产业拉动率更为频繁,并倾向于保持对GDP的中高拉动作用。中国城镇化整体上表现出稳中向好的发展态势,并未发生陡升陡降的频繁变迁,虽然中国城镇化水平较难维持高速增长,但实现了相对稳定的发展。中国的产业结构升级和城镇化进程在许多时域内出现区制维持的一致性和区制变迁的同步性,揭示出产业结构升级和城镇化进程之间存在一定程度的相互影响。

This paper uses the nonlinear MS(M)-AR(p)model to divide the structural evolution state and analyze the transition probability of the first,second and third industries,and urbanization speed,so as to explore the evolution and upgrading of the three industrial structures and the relationship between them and the urbanization process.The important con⁃clusions of the empirical study are as follows:The contribution of the primary industry to GDP was the smallest among the three industries from 1978 to 2017.The first industry's contribution rate was in the state of the“Low pull rate zone”and the“Medium pull rate zone system”in other long periods,and tended to maintain the status of the intrinsic district system.The contri⁃bution of the secondary industry to GDP was the largest among the three industries from 1978 to 2013,the second industry pull rate continuously transferred between the“low pull zone sys⁃tem”and the“high pull zone system”frequently before the early 1990s,and was always maintaining at the“middle pull rate zone system”in the next 25 years,and the secondary in⁃dustry was easy to maintain the middle and high pull effect on GDP.The pull rate of the tertiary industry replaced the secondary industry from 2014 to 2017 and became the core driving force of China's economic growth.The change of the pull rate of the tertiary industry among the three regional systems was more frequent than that of the primary and secondary industries,and ten⁃ded to maintain a medium high pull effect on GDP.Although China's urbanization level was not easy to maintain at a relatively high growth rate,but it has achieved relatively stable develop⁃ment.The urbanization level will not arise significant slowdown in the short term,and the over⁃all performance of it will show a steady upward trend.The process of industrial structure upgra⁃ding and urbanization in China shows the consistency of district system maintenance and the synchronization of district system change in many time domains,which reveals that there is a certain degree of interaction between industrial structure upgrading and urbanization.