人力资本服务、空间溢出与经济增长

Human Capital Services,Spatial Spillovers and Economic Growth

人力资本服务是新时代经济高质量发展的新动能。本文首先建立人力资本服务模型,理论推出其对经济增长的影响机制;其次建立了包括个人、企业和国家三个层面的人力资本服务体系,基于我国省级面板数据,通过构建双向固定效应下的动态空间杜宾模型,实证研究了人力资本服务对经济增长的空间效应,特别是空间溢出效应;最后,基于空间相关距离和地理区位进行异质性研究。研究结论如下:(1)理论分析表明,人力资本服务能够促进经济增长;(2)空间相关性分析表明,我国区域经济增长具有明显的空间正相关性;(3)实证分析表明,短期人力资本服务显著促进经济增长,且间接效应远大于直接效应,即人力资本服务的增长效应主要得益于相关省(区市)的溢出效应;(4)随着空间相关距离的增加,人力资本服务促进经济增长的短期效应是增加的;(5)从东部地区、中部地区到西部地区,人力资本服务促进经济增长的短期效应依次增大。

Human capital services have become a new driving force for the high-quality de⁃velopment in the New Era.Firstly,the impact mechanism of human capital services on eco⁃nomic growth is theoretically deduced by a human capital services model.Secondly,a human capital service indicator system including three levels of individuals,enterprises and countries is established.Based on China's provincial panel data,a dynamic SDM model under two⁃way fixed effects was constructed to empirically analyze the spatial effect of human capital services on economic growth,especially the spatial spillover effect.Finally,heterogeneity was done based on spatial distance and geographical location.The conclusions of the study are as flow⁃ings.(1)Theoretical analysis shows that the growth rate of total output and human capital services change in the same direction,that is,human capital services promote economic growth;(2)The analysis of spatial correlation shows that China's provincial economic growth has time⁃space dependence and spatial heterogeneity,showing the characteristics of“high⁃high”and“low⁃low”agglomeration in spatial distribution;(3)Empirical analysis shows that human capital services significantly promote economic growth in the short term,while the spillover effect is far greater than the direct effect,That is,the contribution of human capital services to economic growth is mainly due to the externalities of the spillover effects of the relevant prov⁃inces;(4)as the spatial distance increases,the short⁃term effects increase;(5)from the east,the middle to the west,the short⁃term effects become larger.