粮食产业高质量发展创新驱动机制分析--基于全要素生产率时空演化视角

Research on Innovation Driving Mechanism of High-quality Development of Grain Industry--From the Perspective of Temporal-spatial Evolution of Total Factor Productivity

创新是赋能粮食产业转型升级、引领高质量发展的第一动力。基于DEA-Malmquist指数法、面板固定效应和条件分位数模型,实证分析了粮食全要素生产率时空演化机制及技术传导路径。结果发现:当前粮食全要素生产率存在下降趋势,主要受技术进步不足拖累。东部地区在科技创新方面具有优势,其技术进步速度领先于中西部地区。从影响路径来看,除人力资本对技术进步有促进作用外,其余因素均对其有抑制作用,表明粮食全要素生产率提升正面临要素质量恶化、配置结构扭曲、产业政策失灵和低端技术锁定等因素限制。且在高质量发展阶段,这种制约效应尤为显著。因此,应从提升要素质量、优化配置结构、完善政策设计、强化科技创新等方面施策,激活粮食产业高质量发展的创新动力。

Innovation is the first driving force to enable the transformation and upgrading of grain industry and to lead high-quality development.Based on DEA Malmquist index,the panel fixed effect and the conditional quantile model,this paper empirically analyzes the temporal-spatial evolution mechanism and technology transmission path of grain total factor productivity(TFP).The results show that:At present,the grain TFP has a downward trend,which is mainly due to the lack of technological progress.The eastern region has advantages in scientific and technological innovation,and its technological progress rate is faster than that of the central and western regions.From the perspective of impact path,except for human capital,other factors have negative influence on technological progress,which means the improvement of grain TFP is facing the constraints of many factors,such as deterioration of factor quality,distortion of allocation structure,failure of industrial policy and lock-in of low-end technology,etc.Especially in the stage of high-quality development,this restriction effect is more significant.Therefore,it’s necessary to improve factor quality,optimize the collocation structure,perfect policy design,and strengthen scientific and technological innovation to activate the innovation power of high-quality development of grain industry.