基于GM(1,1)预测方法的上海市全科医生发展现状及趋势研究

Status quo and developmental trend of general practitioners in Shanghai based on the GM(1,1)prediction model

目的探讨上海市与长三角各省份全科医生发展现状,预测上海市全科医生发展趋势,为“十四五”期间上海市完善全科医生制度提供参考依据。方法通过年均增长速度对比分析2013年—2019年上海市与长三角各省份全科医生发展状况,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对2020年—2025年上海市人口数量、全科医生数量的变化趋势进行预测研究。结果2013年—2019年上海市全科医生数、每万人口全科医生数、注册为全科医学专业的人数与取得全科医生培训合格证书的人数年平均增长率分别为8.97%、8.77%、13.42%、-5.47%,自2018年以来,上海市每万人口全科医生配置情况在长三角地区处于劣势;预测结果显示,2025年上海市全科医生总量将达14527名,每万人口将拥有5.98名全科医生。结论上海市全科医生整体发展态势向好,但具有合格证书的人数呈下降趋势,培训质量亟待提高。要进一步优化全科医生培养制度、健全激励机制、改善执业环境,从而满足居民健康需要,助力健康上海建设,引领长三角地区发展。

Objective To explore the status quo of general practitioners(GP)in Shanghai and the provinces in the Yangtze River Delta,predict the developmental trend of GP in Shanghai,and provide reference to improve the GP system during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period in Shanghai.Methods Based on the average annual growth rate,the development status of GP in Shanghai and the provinces in the Yangtze River Delta from 2013 to 2019 was compared and analyzed.The GM(1,1)gray prediction model was used to analyze and predict the changing trend of population and GP in Shanghai between 2020 and 2025.Results From 2013 to 2019,the average annual growth rate of GP in Shanghai,the number of GP per 10,000 population,the number of registered GP,and the number of GP who obtained qualification certificates were increased by 8.97%,8.77%,13.42%and-5.47%,respectively.Since 2018,the allocation of GP per 10,000 population in Shanghai has been at inferiority in the Yangtze River Delta;the prediction results showed that the total number of GP in Shanghai will reach 14,527 by 2025,and the number of GP per 10,000 population will reach 5.98.Conclusion The overall development of GP in Shanghai tends to be improving,but the number with qualified certificates is on the decline,and the quality of training needs to be improved urgently.It is necessary to further optimize the GP training system,improve the incentive mechanism and the practice environment,so as to meet the needs of resident health,help construct a healthy Shanghai,and lead the development of the Yangtze River Delta.