基于事件链理论的工艺危害事件发生概率研究

Research on Accident Probability in Process Risk Assessment Based on Accident Chain Theory

现有的工艺危害分析方法仅从事件独立发生的角度进行风险评估,其分析结果难免与实际情况有所偏差。拟将事件链引入工艺危害分析,即依据其因果关系,将多种工艺危害事件作为事件链,映射为贝叶斯网络后计算出衍生事件的发生概率,并通过实例印证了该计算方法的可行性,对工艺危害分析的定量化具有一定意义。

The existing process hazard analysis methods only conduct risk assessment from the perspective of independent occurrence of events,and their analysis results will inevitably deviate from the actual situation.This article intends to introduce the event chain into the process hazard analysis,that is,according to its causal relationship,a variety of process hazard events are taken as the event chain,mapped to the Bayesian network,and then the probability of occurrence of derivative events is calculated.Also the feasibility of the calculation method is verified by an example,which has certain significance for the quantification of process hazard analysis.