基于时序指数平滑法的风电场短期功率预测研究

Research of Short term Power Prediction of Wind Farm Based on Sequential Index Smoothing Method

有效的风电功率时序预测,是风电并网的常规化的关键技术,可提高调度机构与风电场之间的协调运行能力。本文以新疆电网某风电场实测数据为基础,基于时序指数平滑法对风电场短期功率进行预测,并根据评价指标对预测结果进行评价,验证了预测模型的有效性及可行性。

Effective wind power time series prediction is the key technology of wind power integration,which can improve the coordinated operation ability between dispatching agencies and wind farms.Based on the measured data of a wind farm in Xinjiang power grid,this paper forecasts the short-term power of the wind farm based on the time series exponential smoothing method,and evaluates the prediction results according to the evaluation indexes,which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the prediction model.