中国粮食主产区水资源承载力评价及动态演化分析

Evaluation and Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Main Grain Producing Areas of China

水资源是农业生产中必不可少的资源要素。在全球面临50年来最严重粮食危机的背景下,评价中国粮食主产区的水资源承载力,对保障粮食安全,维护社会稳定具有重要意义。通过构建粮食主产区水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用集对分析和偏联系数对中国粮食主产区共13个省份2013~2017年的水资源承载力进行评价与动态演化分析。结果表明,江西、四川、湖北、湖南、黑龙江的水资源承载系统呈正向发展趋势,于2017年达到承载盈余水平;河北、内蒙古、辽宁、江苏、山东、河南的水资源承载系统呈负向发展趋势,其中辽宁、江苏由于较好的水资源条件近5年一直处于承载一般区,其余4省于2017年处于水资源超载区;吉林和安徽由于水资源承载系统中的支撑力与压力同时增长或降低,近年来变化幅度不大,一直处于承载一般区。研究成果可为推动中国农业绿色发展提供参考。

Water resource is an essential resource factor in agricultural production.Under the background of the most serious food crisis in the past 50 years,the evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources in main grain-producing areas in China is of great significance to ensure food security and maintain social stability.By constructing the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of main grain producing areas,the set pair analysis and partial connection coefficient were used to analyze the dynamic evolution of water resources carrying capacity of 13 provinces in China’s main grain producing areas from 2013 to 2017.It is pointed out that the water resources carrying system of Jiangxi,Sichuan,Hubei,Hunan and Heilongjiang shows a positive development trend and reaches the carrying surplus level in 2017.The water resource carrying system of Hebei,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Jiangsu,Shandong and Henan presents a negative development trend.Liaoning and Jiangsu have been in the general carrying area for the past five years due to good water resource conditions,and the remaining four provinces are in the water resource overload area in 2017.As the supporting force and pressure in the water resource carrying system increase or decrease simultaneously,the trend of change in Jilin and Anhui is small,and they have been in the general carrying area in recent years.The research results can provide reference for agricultural green development in China.