基于组合博弈论法的海河流域水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Haihe River Basin Based on Combinatorial Game Theory

针对海河流域较为严重的水资源短缺和水环境污染等问题,为探究流域内各省份水资源承载力状况,基于水资源现状,从水资源、社会、经济和生态四个方面构建评价指标体系,并制定了评价等级标准。采用基于CRITIC法和熵权法结合的组合博弈论法确定权重,通过正向云模型评价得出2009~2018年海河流域内的8个省市的水资源承载力状况。结果表明,该区域整体水资源承载力等级保持在Ⅲ~Ⅳ级,天津市、山西省的水资源承载力相对较强,但仍处于一般状况,河南省的水资源承载力最弱,内蒙古的水资源承载力保持较稳定的提升趋势。研究区域内的水资源子系统的承载能力普遍较弱,但经济子系统承载能力相对较强,单位产值用水量能够达到较高水平。评价结果可为海河流域内水资源规划提供依据。

In view of the serious water resources shortage and water environment pollution in Haihe River Basin,the water resources carrying capacity of each province in the basin was explored.Based on the current situation of water resources,this paper constructs the evaluation index system from the four aspects of water resources,society,economy and ecology,and establishes the evaluation grade standard.The weight was determined by the combinatorial game theory based on CRITIC and entropy weight method.The water resources carrying capacity of 8 provinces and cities in the Haihe River Basin from 2009 to 2018 was evaluated by the forward cloud model.The results show that the grade of overall regional water resources carrying capacity is in theⅢtoⅣgrade.The water resources carrying capacity of Tianjin and Shanxi Province are relatively strong,but they are still in the average state.That of Henan Province is the weakest and that of Inner Mongolia keeps a relatively stable trend of improvement.The carrying capacity of the water resources subsystem in the study area is generally weak,but the carrying capacity of the economic subsystem is relatively strong,and the water consumption per unit output value can reach a high level.The evaluation results can provide scientific basis for water resources planning in Haihe River Basin.