城市模型研究展望

Prospects on Urban Modeling App-lication and Research

城市模型是城市规划学科定量研究的重要方法与工具,经过半个多世纪的发展,城市模型可以为城市政策的执行及城市规划方案的制定和评估提供可行的技术支持。在经历30年快速城市化发展的背景下,我国城市正面临一系列变革与挑战,城市模型如何在其中支持与适应是亟待解决的问题。因此,文章首先介绍城市模型的背景,包括发展过程与基本分类;其次对城市模型发展现状进行梳理,介绍主流经典城市模型与城市模型研究相关的学术会议;最后,结合我国城市的主要变革趋势,重点对城市模型的未来发展提出五点展望,分别是:①加快研究颠覆性技术对城市的影响并纳入城市模型中;②构建面向收缩城市的城市模型;③加强人本尺度的城市模型构建;④加强数据驱动型城市模型的开发;⑤客观认识城市定义,更科学地构建城市模型。在现有研究不足的基础上提出模型研究与构建的具体策略,以期为规划工作者使用城市模型解决城市问题以及城市模型研究人员更好地构建城市模型提供可靠与详细的参考。

Urban modeling is an important tool for quantitative research in urban planning.After more than half a century of development,urban modeling can provide technical support for the implementation of urban policies and the formulation,evaluation of urban planning schemes.After 30 years of rapid urbanization,China’s cities are facing a series of changes and challenges,during which process how to support and adapt is an urgent problem for urban modeling.Therefore,this paper first presents the background of urban modeling,including the development process and basic classification;secondly,it sorts out the current situation of urban modeling by introducing the classic urban models and the related academic conferences;finally,combined with the main background of China’s cities,it proposes five development trends of the urban modeling,including:①Enhancing the study of the impact of advanced technologies on cities and incorporating them into urban modeling;②Enhancing the study of urban modeling for shrinking cities;③Enhancing the study of urban modeling from a human scale;④Enhancing the study of data-driven urban modeling;⑤Understanding the urban definitions from an objective perspective to build the urban models more scientifically.Based on the existing research shortage,the specific strategies of urban modeling research are proposed.For urban planners,this paper provides a reference to solve problems by using urban modeling.For urban modeling researchers,it provides a reference to optimize modeling for cities.