人口流动转向:从单向城镇化到城乡弱融合——基于山东省多源数据的综合分析

Shifting of Population Flow:From One-way Urbanization to Weak Urban-rural Integration--Comprehensive Analysis Based on Multi-source Data of Shandong Province

省域层面流动人口总体规模、结构与演进趋势的综合分析结果,打破了经典城镇化发展阶段划分理论“当前处于加速区间”的认知。利用山东省省域层面人口流动的多源数据分析发现,山东省常住人口城镇化率从快速增长区间转入降速增长区间的初期调整阶段。通过流动人口内部结构探知其深层次原因,流动人口的规模和结构由经济发展总量这一基本面决定,人口向都市圈、沿海以及与家乡邻近的城市聚集,乡—城转移动力趋弱、规模收缩、增速下降,城—城转移成为核心城市人口流动的主动力,城—乡转移人口呈总体缓增、局部波动、点上爆发的态势。概括起来,省域层面的人口流动,开始从过去由乡入城的单向城镇化,向城乡之间人口交互流转的新趋势转变。因此,“十四五”时期,需协同推进城镇化与乡村振兴战略,针对不同流动人口分类施策,构建以农业转移人口市民化为主线、以城市小规模人才入乡发展为补充的人口流动政策体系,夯实国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的人口基础。

The results of the comprehensive analysis of the overall scale’structure and evolution trend of the floating population at the provincial level break the recognition of the classical theory of urbanization development stage division’which limited as“currently in the accelerating range”.Using the multi-source data analysis of population flow in Shandong Province’it is found that the urbanization rate of permanent residents in Shandong Province has entered the initial adjustment stage from the rapid growth interval to the slow growth interval.At this stage’the scale and structure of the floating population in each region are determined by the basic principle of the total economic development’meanwhile the population gathers in the metropolitan area’the coastal area and the cities close to their hometown.The power of the rural-urban transfer weakens’the scale shrinks’and the growth rate drops’and the urban-rural transfer population shows a trend of overall slow growth’small fluctuation’and point eruption.To sum up’the provincial level of population flow is from the past one-way of rural-urban to the new trend of interactive population flow between urban and rural areas.In the new era’it is necessary to classify and implement policies for different floating population’focus on system retention’facilities assistance’integration and accommodation’release population dividend in a longer period of time’and consolidate the population foundation for the modernization of national governance system and governance capacity.