反补贴对中国出口贸易的影响研究——基于双重差分法的实证分析

Research on the Effect of Countervailing on China’s Export Trade--The Difference-in-Differences Approach

近期,以美国为首的世界主要发达国家开始主张贸易保护主义,进而对其贸易伙伴国实施关税和非关税贸易壁垒,其中就包括反倾销、反补贴。因此,本文利用联合国贸易数据库和全球反补贴数据库中的数据,以2011~2013年世界对华反补贴发起案件为研究对象,运用双重差分法分析了反补贴对中国出口贸易额的影响。分析结果表明:反补贴的发起会使中国出口贸易额出现较为明显的下降,即反补贴对中国贸易有着显著的抑制作用,不利于中国出口贸易的健康发展。

Recently’major developed countries’led by the United States’have began to advocate trade protectionism and imposed tariff and non-tariff trade barriers including anti-dumping and countervailing.This article analyses the countervailing effect on China’s export trade by studying the countervailing cases initiated against China from 2011 to 2013 using trade data from United Nations Comtrade Database and Global Countervailing Database.The difference-in-differences(DID)approach is adopted.The result shows that the initiation of countervailing cases will cause a significant decline in China’s export trade value’that is’countervailing depresses China’s trade significantly and it is not conducive to the healthy development of China’s export trade.