基于全球价值链调整的中美贸易利益与结构

Research on Sino-US Trade Interests and Structure Based on Global Value Chain Adjustment

中美贸易摩擦和疫情冲击加快全球价值链进入新一轮的重塑和调整期,采用UIBE GVC Index数据和WWZ方法,从产业层面分析2000—2018年中美贸易利益与结构。研究表明:产业结构调整和要素禀赋的动态变化促使基于劳动力比较优势的加工贸易业比重下降,资本、技术密集型产业逐渐成为中国出口的主要产业;2008年全球金融危机以来,中国制造业"被动"后向参与度呈缩小趋势,价值链前向参与度扩大,但制造业出口仍有较大比重的价值来源于其他国家,贸易利益被高估;2010—2018年中间产品出口的增加值DVA_INT和DVA_INTREX占比持续上升,制造业显现出沿着高附加值价值链上游攀升的趋势。

The epidemic impact and Sino-US trade friction accelerate the global value chain into a new round of reconstruction and adjustment period. UIBE GVC index data and WWZ method are used to analyze the Sino-US trade interests and structure from the industrial level from 2000 to 2018. Research shows: The adjustment of industrial structure and the dynamic change of factor endowment promote the decline of the proportion of processing trade based on labor comparative advantage, and capital and technology intensive industries have gradually become the main industries of China’s export. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the "passive" backward participation of China’s manufacturing industry has decreased and the forward participation of the value chain has expanded. However, a large proportion of the value of manufacturing exports still comes from other countries, and the trade interests are overestimated. The proportion of intrex of added value DVA;Int and DVA;f intermediate product exports from 2010 to 2018 continues to rise, and the manufacturing industry shows a rising trend along the upstream of the high value-added value chain.