人口老龄化对人力资本积累的影响研究--“老龄化红利”假说及实证检验

Study on the Impact of an Aging Population on Human Capital Accumulation--A Hypothesis of"Aging Dividend"and its Empirical Test

本文从人力资本理论的视角分析了人口老龄化趋势与人力资本积累水平之间的关系,并且对相关权威样本数据进行回归分析。本文认为,在一定条件下和一定范围内,老龄化趋势与人力资本积累水平之间存在“倒U”关系。其成因是人口年龄结构变化使具有一定技术含量的部分产业、职业内更富职业经验的劳动者群体扩大,同时家庭和个人对人力资本投资的积极性提高等,但上述因素的正向作用受到人类生命周期规律和一些负面因素的制约。因此,在一定时期内,全社会存在“老龄化红利”。我国当前业已进入“老龄化红利”期,要充分利用和延长“老龄化红利”,必须继续推进产业结构优化,完善面向全社会的终身教育体系,实施积极老龄化战略,继续提高人力资源配置效率,进一步发展卫生健康、社会保障及体育事业,积极优化生育政策。

Through theoretical analysis and empirical test,this paper finds that under certain conditions and within a certain scope,there is an inverted U shape relationship between an aging population trend and human capital accumulation level.The reason is that changes in the age structure of the population have led to the expansion of the group of workers with more professional experience in some industries and occupations in which intelligence,technology and skill are required;meanwhile,families and individuals pay more attention to the investment of human capital into younger generations.But the positive role of the abovementioned factors is restricted by the human life cycle and some negative factors.Therefore,an"aging dividend"only exists for a certain period of time in the society.China has now entered the"aging dividend"period.In order to fully utilize and extend the"aging dividend"period,we must continue to optimize the industrial structure,improve the lifelong learning education system for the whole society,and implement the strategy on an active aging population,continue to improve the efficiency of human resources allocation,further develop systems on public health,social security and sports programs,and improve reproductive health policies.