中国玉米市场存在的问题与发展思路

Problems and Development Ideas of Chinese Maize Market

随着临时储存玉米即将拍卖完毕,预期供需缺口较大,导致2020年价格持续大幅上涨,价格上涨加剧了贸易商和加工企业的屯粮行为,与供需缺口形成叠加效应,出现了玉米价格边拍边涨的现象,价格达到了历史高点。当前玉米市场存在的主要问题是,国家为了尽快消化掉临储库存,连续多年采取了调减玉米种植面积、扩大玉米消费的政策,以临储玉米拍卖来弥补产需缺口,2020年临储玉米拍卖完成后,国家再无玉米用以弥补产需缺口,产需缺口转变成供需缺口,产需缺口凸显可能影响了玉米产业的健康发展。基于此,短期应通过国内小麦和水稻拍卖、玉米及其替代产品进口补充国内玉米的不足,长期需调整玉米产业结构,形成以国内玉米产需均衡发展为主的玉米产业供需结构,保证中国玉米产业健康发展。

With the auction of temporarily stored maize was about to be completed,the expected supply and demand gap was large,which led to a sustained and substantial increase in price in 2020.The price rise increased the grain raising behavior of traders and processing enterprises,and formed a superposition effect with the supply and demand gap,and the phenomenon of maize price rising while auctioning,and the price had reached a historical high.The analysis showed that the main problems existing in the maize market were in order to digest the temporary storage inventory as soon as possible,the state adopted the policy of reducing the maize planting area and expanding the maize consumption for many years,and the temporary storage maize auction was used to make up the production and demand gap.After the temporary storage maize auction was completed in 2020,the state would not make up the production and demand gap for the shortage of maize,and the production and demand gap would turn into the supply and demand gap.This will affect the healthy development of maize industry.Based on this,in the short term,the shortage of domestic maize should be supplemented by domestic wheat and rice auctions,maize and its substitutes imports,and in the long term,the industrial structure of maize should be adjusted to form a supply and demand structure of maize industry based on the balanced development of domestic maize production and demand,so as to ensure the healthy development of China’s maize industry.