顾及时间效应的周围人口与视频监控对街头抢劫者作案地选择的影响研究

Study on the impact of ambient population and surveillance cameras on street robbers’ crime location choice considering time effect

作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题,但以往研究侧重考虑建成环境和社会环境的影响,缺乏研究周围人口与视频监控的作用。为弥补这一不足,论文以中国ZG市为例,利用离散空间选择模型,检验周围人口和视频监控对街头抢劫者作案地选择的影响,并尝试验证其时间效应。结果表明:①周围人口与视频监控对街头抢劫者作案地选择均存在显著负影响,但两者的作用强度有所差异,即它们均能抑制街头抢劫的发生,但周围人口的监护作用大于视频监控的威慑作用;②在周内日变化上,周围人口和视频监控的监护作用具有时间平稳性;但在日内时变化上,周围人口的影响呈现出时间波动性,而视频监控的影响却保持时间稳定特性。研究结果对警务防控和犯罪研究具有重要的参考意义,如:①开展社会治安视频监控系统防控效果的实验评估,并对其布设位置进行动态优化与调整;②在城市规划或城市更新时安排适量的混合功能用地,以在规划或管理上加强对周围人口的适度调节;③未来时间效应研究应重点关注日变化规律。

Explaining how offenders choose a crime location is one of the central themes of crime geography.However, previous research on offenders’ crime location choice mostly considers the impact of the built environment and social environment, without considering the impact of ambient population and surveillance cameras on street robbery and its temporal difference. To fill this gap, this study integrated ambient population and surveillance cameras in assessing street robbers’ decision making and its time effects in ZG City of China, by using the discrete spatial choice modeling. The results demonstrate that ambient population and surveillance cameras have a significant negative impact on street robbers’ crime location choice, and they play a protective role in preventing street robbers’ criminal activities. Interestingly, we found that the protective effect of ambient population is greater than that of surveillance cameras. The protective role of ambient population and surveillance cameras is stable daily through the week, but diurnally, the influence of ambient population shows temporal fluctuation, while the impact of surveillance cameras is temporally stable. These findings can be of some reference for police control and crime geography research by: 1) Carrying out the experimental evaluation of surveillance camera system’s prevention and control effect, and dynamic optimization and adjustment of surveillance cameralocations. 2) Arranging a suitable amount of mixed functional land in urban planning or urban renewal to strengthen the moderation of ambient population through planning or management. 3) Focusing on diurnal variability in future studies of the time effects.