城市道路危险品运输路线风险评价方法

Risk Assessment Method of Urban Road Dangerous Goods Transportation Route

公路运输已然成为危险品的主要运输方式,而城市道路是公路运输的重要承接部分,也是危险性较大的部分。针对城市道路周边人口密度大、车流量较大的特点,研究城市道路危险品运输路线的风险评估方法,可为采取风险控制措施提供依据和基础。本文探讨了国内外危险品运输风险评价的现状,找出城市道路危险品运输中的风险影响因素。依据城市道路危险品运输事故发生的特性,经过对危险源的分析比较建立基于模糊综合评价的事故概率和事故后果的模型和风险指标体系,通过三角模糊数来确定其事故影响因素的权重,利用距离加权法计算危险品运输路线的风险值。结果表明风险评价结果符合实际情况,可据此对危险品运输的路线进行选择,使其风险在可控的范围内。

Road transportation has become the main mode of transportation for dangerous goods,and urban roads are an important part of road transportation and a dangerous part.In view of the large population density around the urban roads and the large traffic volume,it provides a basis and basis for risk control measures,and studies the risk assessment methods for urban road dangerous goods transportation routes.The status quo of risk assessment of dangerous goods transportation at home and abroad is discussed,and the risk influencing factors of dangerous goods transportation in urban roads are found out.According to the characteristics of urban road dangerous goods transportation accidents,through the analysis and comparison of dangerous sources,the model of accident probability and accident consequence based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established,the risk index system is established,and the accident influencing factors are determined by triangular fuzzy numbers.Weight,using the distance weighting method to calculate the risk value of the dangerous goods transportation route.The results show that the risk assessment results are in line with the actual situation,so that the route of dangerous goods transportation is selected so that the risk is within the controllable range.