美国对华科技政策研判

Study and Assessment of US Science and Technology Policy Towards China

拜登政府上台后改弦更张,改变了特朗普政府的很多做法。然而,变动最小的可能就是对华科技政策。美国政府对华科技政策的本质就是不甘于在一些领域被中国超越,试图通过策动自上而下的政治力量,干预自下而上的技术与市场力量,扰乱既有的技术与市场进程。将基于政治与国际关系的自上而下(Top-Down,简称TD)的制度维度,与基于技术演进与科技产业发展规律的自下而上的技术维度(Bottom-Up,简称BU)相结合,构建BUTD分析模型,分析拜登政府对华科技政策的逻辑和战略,可以得出,中国应确定积极防御战略,立足自我,完善顶层设计,强化技术创新和开放战略,顺应技术演进逻辑和市场开放趋势,适应科技博弈的新常态,因势利导,解决中国科技发展长期存在的关键问题;更要立足长远,为全球科技产业基础性的公共物品作出重要贡献。

After the Biden administration took office,it has changed many practices of the Trump administration.However,the smallest change may be the science and technology policy towards China.The essence of the US government's science and technology policy towards China is that it is unwilling to be surpassed by China in some areas,so it tries to disrupt the existing technology and market process by instigating top-down political forces and intervening in bottom-up technology and market forces.Combining the top-down(TD)institutional dimension based on political and international relations with the bottom-up(BU)technical dimension based on technological evolution and the development law governing the science and technology industry,this paper constructs a BUTD analysis model and analyzes the logic and strategy of the Biden government's science and technology policy towards China.It can be concluded that China should adopt an active defense strategy,rely on itself,improve top-level design,strengthen technological innovation and the opening-up strategy,comply with the logic of technological evolution and the trend of market opening,adapt to the new normal of scientific and technological competition,make good use of the changing situation,and solve the long-standing key problems affecting China's scientific and technological development;more importantly,China should make important contributions to the basic public goods of the global science and technology industry in the long run.