中国碳市场产能过剩行业的碳排放配额如何分配是有效的?

How to allocate carbon allowances effectively for industries with overcapacity in China’s carbon market?

在中国碳排放配额总量既定的前提下,科学分配产能过剩行业在省域间的碳排放配额具有十分重要的意义。为提高碳排放配额的利用效率,倒逼产能过剩企业淘汰落后产能,该研究构建了适用于产能过剩行业的异质性非参数前沿模型(TH⁃ZSG⁃DEA)。使用产能过剩代表性行业水泥行业的数据,将该模型应用于2025年和2030年中国31个省份水泥行业的碳排放配额分配,并进一步推导出地方CO2减排系数,结果表明:①各省水泥行业的技术水平存在显著差异,因此在进行配额分配时需要考虑技术异质性因素;②系统效率的提升主要是由管理效率较低的省份引起的,CO2减排系数的设置对管理效率落后省份的影响更大,因此在进行配额分配时,应该优先考虑改善低效率省份的配额分配方案;③效率阈值的选取对减排系数的波动幅度造成了较大影响,使用TH⁃ZSG⁃DEA模型时,选取较高的效率阈值进行分组更为合理,并且一次迭代后的减排系数更为温和;④使用TH⁃ZSG⁃DEA模型得出的减排系数的波动幅度比传统ZSG⁃DEA模型更小,这样在提升效率的同时兼顾公平,能够减少碳排放权交易市场的运行阻力,实现经济增长和节能减排双赢。产能过剩行业的配额分配方案要结合相应的产业政策特点进行,即使对于管理水平较高的省份,也要进行适当的碳排放约束,以防止产能过剩行业盲目扩张。该研究为产能过剩行业的碳排放配额分配提供了方法和政策启示,有助于中国乃至其他国家特别是发展中国家和地区通过碳排放权交易市场实现节能减排和产业结构优化调整。

After the upgrading of China’s carbon market to a national level,the first sectors to be included are those with excess capacity.Taking that into consideration,it is of great significance to scientifically allocate the carbon emission allowances of industries with excess capacity among provinces.In order to improve the utilization efficiency of carbon emission allowances and force enterprises with excess production capacity to eliminate backward production facilities,this paper constructs non-parametric frontier models(TH-ZSGDEA) that are suitable for this kind of industries,and the models consider technological heterogeneity.Data related to the most representative industry-the cement industry-is used as a base for this study.The method here applied includes the application of the TH-ZSGDEA model to the carbon emission allowance allocation of cement industries of 31 provinces in china’s mainland in 2025 and 2030,to calculate each place’s carbon abatement coefficient.The results show that:(1)The technical level of China’s cement industry varies significantly from province to province,so technological heterogeneity must be taken into account when considering allowance allocation;(2)The improvement of system efficiency is mainly caused by the provinces with low management efficiency,and the setting of carbon abatement coefficient has a greater impact on these regions.In this case,priority should be given to improving allowance allocation scheme in inefficient provinces;(3)When the TH-ZSG-DEA allowance allocation model is used,it is more reasonable to select a higher efficiency threshold for grouping.The reduction coefficient obtained after one iteration is moderate;(4)The fluctuation range of the carbon abatement coefficient calculated by the TH-ZSG-DEA model is smaller than the one obtained by the ZSG-DEA model.Fairness is taken into account while efficiency is improved,which can reduce the operating resistance of the carbon emission trading market and promote economic growth,energy conservation,and emission reduction.The allowance allocation scheme for industries with excess capacity should be set according to the characteristics of corresponding industrial policies.Even for provinces with a high management level,appropriate carbon emission constraints are necessary to prevent the blind expansion of industries in this specific group.This paper provides insights into methods and policy enlightenments for the allocation of carbon emission allowance in industries with overcapacity,which can help China and other countries,especially developing regions,to achieve energy conservation,emission reduction,and industrial structure optimization with the help of the carbon market.