城市引领碳达峰、碳中和的理论和路径

Theory and pathway of city leadership in emission peak and carbon neutrality

碳达峰、碳中和即“双碳”目标是中国对国际社会作出的庄严承诺,也是“十四五”时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一。城市在实现“双碳”目标中居于先导地位,低碳城市试点已积累了十余年的工作经验,对于新形势下城市引领机制的理论基础、政策环境变化及优化方案进行系统性思考很有必要。根据协同论观点,低碳城市建设尚处于依靠外部规制运转的他组织阶段,需要向内部有序运转的自组织转变,其主要推动力包括优化快变量的作用机制,培育适合慢变量发展的政策环境,发挥慢变量的决定性作用;发挥竞争—合作机制的推动作用,鼓励良性竞争,加强城市间合作;发挥有序协同带来的功能倍增作用,功能互补,降低内耗。而城市引领的现实基础在于“双碳”目标对低碳城市试点建设的新形势新要求,首先政策环境由弱激励弱约束变为强约束强支持,城市发展迎来低碳硬约束,同时各方政策支持也在强化,需要有效防止城市低碳行动非理性的倾向;其次试点建设积累了有益经验,证明发挥政府主导力、企业主体力、市场配置力和社会协同力,形成多方面政策合力是必要且可能的。需要进一步推广经验,发挥好先进带后进,试点带整体的作用;最后区域发展不平衡的矛盾依然突出,存在要素空间错配、产业链整合度不高和清洁能源供需逆向分布等问题,仍有帕累托改进空间。由此,“双碳”目标下的城市引领机制,首先要以长效性持续性政策支持的差异化达峰路径为基础,消费主导型、工业主导型、综合发展型和生态优先型城市各有侧重;其次要以城市间竞争—合作机制为保障,包括对考核评比、对口帮扶、信息披露的创新优化;最后要以区域协同政策为支撑,强化政策协同、产业协同、技术协同、能源协同和生态协同。

The‘dual carbon’target is a solemn commitment made by China to the international community,and also one of the main goals of economic and social development during the‘14th Five⁃Year Plan’period.Cities are in a leading position in achieving this tar⁃get.The pilot of low⁃carbon cities has accumulated more than 10 years of experience.It is necessary to systematically think about the theoretical basis of the city’s leading mechanism,changes in the policy environment,and optimization programs under the new situa⁃tion.According to the Synergy Theory,the construction of low⁃carbon cities is still at the stage of other organizations that relies on exter⁃nal regulations to operate.It needs to transform to an orderly internal operation of self⁃organization.The main driving forces include:op⁃timizing the mechanism of action of fast variables,cultivating a policy environment suitable for slow variable development and exerting the decisiveness of slow variables;playing the role of competition⁃cooperation mechanism,encouraging healthy competition,and im⁃proving cooperation between cities;playing the role of multiplication of functions brought about by orderly coordination,complement⁃ing each other,and reducing internal friction.The actual basis of the city leadership lies in the new situation and new requirements brought by the‘dual carbon”target for low⁃carbon city pilot program.Firstly,the policy environment has changed from weak incen⁃tives and weak constraints to strong constraints and strong support.Urban development is ushering in low⁃carbon hard constraints,and policy support from all parties is also strengthening.It is necessary to effectively prevent the irrational tendency of low⁃carbon city ac⁃tions.Secondly,the pilot program has accumulated beneficial experience in giving full play to the leading power of the government,the main power of enterprises,the power of market allocation and social coordination,which proves that the formation of policy synergy is necessary and possible.And further measures are needed to promote the experience.Finally,the contradiction of uneven regional de⁃velopment is still prominent,problems such as spatial mismatch of factors,low integration of the industrial chain,and reverse distribu⁃tion of clean energy supply and demand still exist,and there is still a Pare Support room for improvement.Therefore,the city’s leading mechanism under the‘dual carbon’target must first be based on differentiated peak paths which are supported by long⁃term and sus⁃tainable policies,and consumption-oriented,industrial⁃oriented,comprehensive development and ecological priority cities have their respective focuses;secondly,an inter⁃city competition⁃cooperation mechanism should be established which includes innovation and optimization of assessment and evaluation,counterpart assistance,and information disclosure;finally,regional coordination policies should be implemented which include policy coordination,industry coordination,technology coordination,energy coordination,and ecological coordination.